The Rangers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
New York dominated the scoreboard (6-2) but the underlying numbers didn't. Toronto finished with a slight expected-goals edge—4.32 to 4.02—yet still lost decisively. The gap came down to conversion and goaltending.
I. Shesterkin dominated. He stopped 2.3 goals above his expected save rate, posting a 0.938 save percentage on 32 shots. J. Woll took the opposite path: 0.783 save percentage, 0.98 goals below expected on 23 shots. That four-goal swing in net effects explains most of the scoreline.
The Rangers were clinical where it mattered. They went 5 for 7 on high-danger chances—a 71% conversion rate that won't last—and got 4 goals off 29 rush chances. Toronto's rush game was nearly as efficient (2 on 27), but they couldn't finish in the danger areas. On eight high-danger chances, Toronto converted zero. They also crashed the net effectively, creating six rebound opportunities, but failed to bury any.
New York outperformed their expected goals by 1.98 and did it through finishing, not luck. Toronto underperformed theirs by 2.32—the mirror image of wasted quality. That inefficiency in a close underlying game is how a tight matchup becomes a rout.
