The Blue Jackets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.52–4.14 and won anyway.
The Blue Jackets beat the Panthers 4–2, but the underlying metrics flipped the script: Florida generated 4.52 expected goals to Columbus's 4.14, a 52–48 edge that usually predicts a Panthers win. The goaltending decided it.
J. Greaves was the difference. He saved 2.52 goals above expected—the margin between a 2–2 tie and a 4–2 Blue Jackets win. His 0.929 save percentage on 28 shots turned what should've been a tight affair into a rout.
The game hinged on shot quality. Columbus generated 0.086 expected goals per shot; Florida managed 0.059. That's not precision—that's execution. The Blue Jackets were relentless on the rush, converting twice on 29 chances. The Panthers matched that conversion rate (2 on 33 attempts) but couldn't exploit their territorial advantage.
The real indictment: Florida landed 10 high-danger chances and buried zero of them. Columbus had six and buried at least two—the ones M. Olivier created from the slot in the third period. Florida then scored twice from low-danger spots, plays where you expect the opposing goalie to hold the line. Greaves didn't.
D. Tarasov played well for Florida—1.14 goals above expected—but faced shots of lower quality. He stopped what he should have. Greaves stopped what he shouldn't have.
Shift attempts split 28–28. I. Provorov orchestrated the win with 1 goal and 2 assists. A. Ekblad recorded 2 assists despite the Panthers' offensive drought. This was less about tactics than variance. Florida created the better game. Greaves simply played the better game.
