The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Nashville's 12–4 edge in high-danger chances exceeded their 6–3 final margin, showing their quality advantage was more pronounced than the scoreline indicated. The Predators controlled play across all underlying metrics.
The expected goals backed it up: Nashville held 63% (5.19–3.07) while dominating shot attempts at 56% (29–23). Where the edge sharpened most was shot positioning. Nashville averaged 0.104 expected goals per attempt to Boston's 0.052, indicating the Predators' shots came from better areas.
Luke Evangelista's wrist shot from the point served as a turning point.
Goaltending and variance. J. Saros stopped 20 of 23 (0.870 SV%), while J. Korpisalo saved 23 of 28 (0.821 SV%). Nashville overperformed their expected goals by 0.81 goals—actual goals exceeded what shot quality alone predicted.
Both teams converted low-danger chances at similar rates (each 2 goals), a category typically unreliable. Nashville's rush dominance proved decisive: 4 goals on 24 chances versus Boston's 2 on 26. The Predators also generated five rebound opportunities, evidence of net-front pressure, though they converted zero. The 16 combined high-danger chances fueled a fast-paced game that ran entirely in Nashville's direction.