The Canucks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.01–3.76 and won anyway.
The Canucks won 6-3, but the real story is what the Blackhawks didn't do with their chances. Chicago controlled 56% of expected goals at 5v5 (3.76–3.01)—a team that should have stolen points instead got run off the ice.
The gap came down to execution and goaltending. N. Tolopilo stopped all 5 high-danger attempts; A. Soderblom went 0.800 SV%, a missed opportunity when every save matters. On volume, the teams shot similarly (23–22), but Vancouver converted and Chicago didn't. The Blackhawks were 0/5 on high-danger chances—that won't happen often.
Both teams were dangerous in transition. Chicago scored 3 goals on 32 rush chances; Vancouver answered with 3 on just 21, a conversion rate nearly double Chicago's. That margin—efficient scoring on chances, especially the rush—separated a close play-by-play story from a 6-3 final.
B. Boeser was the game's tipping point, scoring twice and breaking Chicago's grip on possession. M. Pettersson set the tone with two assists in 27:12. Chicago's F. Nazar stayed aggressive with 1 goal and 1 assist in 20:02, but the Blackhawks' bright spots couldn't force a reckoning with their underlying play.
Vancouver outperformed their xG by 2.99 goals—elite finishing or kind bounces, depending on your read. Chicago underperformed by 0.76. One team's variance went sideways; the other's broke right. Over time, regression catches up, but on this night, Vancouver made Chicago's control look irrelevant.
