The Ducks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.25–3.51 and won anyway.
The Ducks won a game the numbers said they shouldn't have. Expected goals favored Montreal 4.25 to 3.51—a margin suggesting the Canadiens generated genuinely more threatening chances. Yet Anaheim stole a 6-5 shootout with ruthless opportunism on low-danger chances and rush offense.
The Ducks held 54% of shot attempts (33–28 on goal), but shot volume masked inferior chance quality. They converted twice from low-danger spots—areas that demand nothing of a goalie. S. Montembeault in Montreal's net faced 33 shots and fell 1.49 goals short of expected performance, a penalty no one survives. Yet L. Dostal for Anaheim allowed 0.75 more goals than expected; his team still won, variance incarnate.
Anaheim proved lethal off the rush, scoring 3 times on 22 chances—a rate that punishes defensive breakdowns in tight games. Montreal countered with 5 rush goals on 38 attempts, a conversion that looked efficient until the scoreboard betrayed them. Where Anaheim collapsed: they managed 0 goals on 5 high-danger chances. S. Montembeault's 100% save rate on those shots was virtuosic—wasted.
C. Kreider orchestrated the upset with 1G, 3A in 17:40, setting Anaheim's opportunistic offense in motion. L. Hutson answered for Montreal with 1G, 2A in 25:51; C. Caufield chipped in 2G, 1A in 19:48. The turning point arrived in the shootout: Alex Killorn's snap shot from the slot.
Anaheim's expected goals deficit proves that scoreboards and underlying metrics don't always align—especially when your team overperforms xG by 2.49 goals and your opponent by only 0.75. The Ducks won the numbers lost.
