The Sabres earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
High-danger chances were 6-6, yet the Sabres won 6-3 — the gap reflects their goaltending and execution in the crease. A. Lyon stopped 6 of 6 high-danger shots (100% SV%), while Y. Askarov faced a team that converted at 50% on those chances (3 of 6). The difference between elite and ordinary.
Beyond the danger zone, the Sabres controlled the broader play. They held 56% of shot attempts (26–20) and generated 60% of expected goals (4.47–2.94). But the real edge was quality: the Sabres created chances worth 0.081 xG per shot; the Sharks managed 0.056. That precision translated to a 3-goal margin.
J. Quinn was the engine. He scored 3 goals and added an assist in 15:09, including a wrist shot from a sharp angle at 17:14 of the third. R. Dahlin orchestrated with 3 assists in 20:07, and R. McLeod added 3 assists in 17:02.
The Sabres also dominated in transition: 5 goals on 25 rush chances versus the Sharks' 3 on 24. Marginal advantage there, but it compounded over 60 minutes.
Y. Askarov faced a heavier workload and cracked under pressure. He saved 20 of 25 shots (0.800 SV%) and was 0.53 goals worse than expected — a clear measure of his struggle. A. Lyon, meanwhile, was a wall: 17 of 20 (0.850 SV%), and his 100% mark on high-danger attempts decided the game. The Sabres outperformed their xG by 1.53 goals, a reflection of both sharp finishing and superior net-minding. When everything breaks right, 6-3 is what you get.