The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Montreal's 3-1 win understates how thoroughly they controlled the game — they held 71% of 5v5 expected goals despite a scoreline that looks more competitive than it was.
The Canadiens dominated shot attempts (65%, 33–18 on goal) and high-danger chances (11–4), generating three times as many truly dangerous looks. They shot more efficiently too: 0.092 expected goals per shot versus Toronto's 0.053.
What kept the gap from being wider: Montreal underperformed their expected goals by 3.26, while J. Woll remained between the pipes and stopped 4.3 goals above expected. The Maple Leafs' netminder posted a 0.938 SV% despite Toronto creating only 2.52 expected goals total.
J. Dobes stopped 17 of 18 for Montreal (0.944 SV%), but Woll was the standout: he saved 4.3 goals above expected and kept 91% of high-danger chances off the board despite facing 11 of them.
Montreal's efficiency on the rush proved decisive — three goals on 30 rush chances. The Canadiens crashed the net hard enough to generate four rebound opportunities, though they converted none; Toronto created four as well but left them unused.
