The Oilers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Oilers won 4–3 despite the Avalanche controlling the game. Colorado dominated shot attempts (56%) and expected goals (3.52–3.25), but Edmonton's goaltending and finishing made the difference.
The divergence was stark. The Avalanche generated more chances of better quality—0.071 expected goals per shot versus Edmonton's 0.050—yet scored fewer goals. This is a game Colorado should have won on the numbers.
T. Jarry stole this one. The Oilers' primary starter (11 saves, 0.917 SV%) was perfect on high-danger chances: 100% save percentage on six HD shots. By the model's measure, he saved 2.5 goals above expected. That's a wall.
The Avalanche, meanwhile, shot themselves in the foot. They generated six high-danger chances and converted zero. Low-danger opportunities went two ways—Colorado buried two from that range—but those aren't wins the data rewards. M. Blackwood allowed 0.75 goals above expected, getting no help from his defense when it mattered most.
Edmonton's efficiency told the story. Two of five high-danger chances converted—exactly 40% of the looks they got. Colorado created four rebound chances, crashed the net effectively, and got nothing. That's execution under pressure, the kind that decides playoff-caliber games.
There was a turning point: Connor McDavid's snap shot from the slot (P3, 09:03). One moment, one decision, and the game's momentum shifted. McDavid finished with a goal and an assist. E. Bouchard added two assists; L. Draisaitl collected two as well.
