The Blues stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.42–4.55 and won anyway.
St. Louis stole this one. Carolina held 65% of expected goals (4.55–2.42) and commanded 65% of shot attempts (32–17), yet lost 3–1. This was a goaltending exhibition masking offensive desperation.
J. Binnington was the margin. He stopped 31 of 32 shots at a 0.969 save percentage, running 3.55 goals above expected — the kind of performance that flips a game Carolina should have won. On high-danger chances, he faced nine shots and stopped them all.
The Hurricanes couldn't finish. They were 0 for 9 on high-danger chances, generating quality looks and converting none. That's a collapsing odds event. St. Louis, by contrast, was ruthless: 2 for 4 on high-danger opportunities (50%). The Blues also found two goals on the rush out of 13 chances, the kind of efficiency that wins games you don't deserve to.
B. Bussi stopped 14 of 16 for Carolina at 0.875, a solid outing in defeat. The gap between the goalies wasn't the problem — the Hurricanes' execution was. Nine high-danger chances and zero conversions represents a level of miss-taking Carolina won't replicate often.
St. Louis made its chances count. That ruthlessness in the high-danger zone, combined with Binnington's wall, turned what looked like a Carolina demolition into a lesson in variance: dominance in expected metrics means nothing without finishing power.
