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← Thu, Mar 12 · the slate
Breakdown · NYR at WPG

Rangers pull away from the Jets

FinalThu, Mar 12
NYRNew York Rangers6WPGWinnipeg Jets3
The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 6 · WPG 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:55 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Winnipeg held 60% of shot attempts and matched the Rangers' chances at the most dangerous range, yet lost 6–3. New York's +2.61 goal overperformance explained the gulf.

The Jets dominated volume (26–17 attempts) but shot lower-quality looks. The Rangers generated 0.069 expected goals per attempt to Winnipeg's 0.046. High-danger chances finished even at 3–3, the only metric that didn't tilt the ice.

The goaltending gap sealed it. I. Shesterkin posted 0.885 SV% (23 of 26), while C. Hellebuyck fell 1.61 goals short of expectation, posting 0.688 (11 of 16). New York scored twice from low-danger spots—finishes Hellebuyck should have stopped.

The Rangers' rush game was lethal: five goals on 21 chances. Winnipeg managed two on 28. That discrepancy swung the third period. Both teams created three rebound chances; Winnipeg converted one, the Rangers none—small sample, lopsided result.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 12
NYR
6
WPG
3

Rangers pull away from the Jets

Chances 3.4 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NYR
3.39
WPG
2.86
54% of the chances46%

The board read NYR 6, WPG 3. The chances read NYR 3.4, WPG 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYR
+2.6
goals above expected
NYR3.39 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
WPG2.86 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Rangers scored 2.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:08NYRA. FoxPP1–0
  2. P2 02:21WPGI. Rosen1–1
  3. P2 07:36NYRA. Lafrenière2–1
  4. P2 17:49WPGK. Connor2–2
  5. P3 01:15NYRT. Kartye3–2
  6. P3 04:19WPGG. Vilardi3–3
  7. P3 06:57NYRG. Perreault4–3
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NYR
34 shots
6
Final
77 shots
WPG
43 shots
3
NYR attackWPG attack
NYR WPG Goal
34
shots · 6 in
43
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NYRWPG
1 / 3
1.86 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.62 xG
3 / 9
0.85 xG
Medium
3 / 13
1.49 xG
2 / 37
0.69 xG
Low
0 / 46
0.74 xG

The Jets went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
C
I. Shesterkin
−0.1
NYR · 23/26
F
C. Hellebuyck
−1.6
WPG · 11/16
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Rangers pull away from the Jets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 3–6
  1. 01:08NYRA. Foxpower play(M. Zibanejad)1–0
2ndshots 6–11
  1. 02:21WPGI. Rosen(J. Bryson, G. Nyquist)1–1
  2. 07:36NYRA. Lafrenière(W. Borgen, G. Perreault)2–1
  3. 17:49WPGK. Connor(M. Scheifele, E. Salomonsson)2–2
3rdshots 8–9
  1. 01:15NYRT. Kartye(M. Robertson, B. Schneider)3–2
  2. 04:19WPGG. Vilardi(A. Lowry, C. Perfetti)3–3
  3. 06:57NYRG. Perreault(B. Schneider, A. Lafrenière)4–3
  4. 11:08NYRA. Edstrom(V. Trocheck, C. Sheary)5–3
  5. 19:09NYRN. Labaempty net(T. Kartye, V. Trocheck)6–3

score reads NYR–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.39
NYR chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.6
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.074
NYR puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
44.1%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.39Expected goals2.86
NYR 54% of the chance quality
17Shots on goal26
3High-danger chances3
49All attempts (Corsi)62
Adjusted for score: NYR 41% · WPG 59%
Faceoffs · WPG won63%off47%neu60%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
NYR1 / 3 · 1.86 xG
WPG0 / 3 · 0.62 xG
Medium dangermid-range
NYR3 / 9 · 0.85 xG
WPG3 / 13 · 1.49 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
NYR2 / 37 · 0.69 xG
WPG0 / 46 · 0.74 xG

NYR went 3-for-9 from medium danger on 0.85 expected goals — 2.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
NYR
6 G · 3.39 xG · +2.6
WPG
3 G · 2.86 xG · +0.1
01234567

NYR finished +2.6 against expected, WPG +0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
NYR
WRIST1/20
SLAP1/4
TIP IN3/6
BACKHAND0/3
SNAP1/1
OTHER0/15
WPG
WRIST2/26
SLAP0/6
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND1/5
SNAP0/2
OTHER0/19
NYR
WPG
Off the rush
5 G on 21
2.19 xG
2 G on 28
2.24 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.29 xG
1 G on 3
0.37 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-20, WPG 2-for-26. NYR scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
I. Shesterkin
NYR · 23/26 · .885
-0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium3/131.5-1.5
Low0/460.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Hellebuyck
WPG · 11/16 · .688
-1.6
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/31.9+0.9
Medium3/90.8-2.1
Low2/370.7-1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
NYR
34 shots
6
Final
77 shots
WPG
43 shots
3
NYR attackWPG attack
NYR WPG Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
B. Schneider
#4 · D · NYR
0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 22:25 on ice · +2
V. Trocheck
#16 · C · NYR
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 19:32 on ice
G. Perreault
#94 · R · NYR
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 19:09 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Mar 12
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 6:53 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4-2.5 goal margin favoring New York, making the Jets 51% to win. This is as close to a pick'em as hockey gets.

The teams are matched on every traditional 5v5 metric. Both sit at exactly 48.0% expected goals percentage and 49.0% Corsi percentage. New York's PDO is 1.009, Winnipeg's 0.998. The Rangers' defensive weak link is Vincent Iorio; the Jets' is Colin Miller. Both teams have surrendered 0% hard-hit goals and 0% rebound goals, a variance indicator in a coin-flip matchup.

The game tilts on goaltending. With the rosters balanced, the starter who plays above his baseline wins the night.

Players to Watch

NYR: Adam Sykora (0.91 xG/60, 3G 1A, 20.0% shooting) | Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60, 8G 11A, 2 HD goals, 13.1% shooting)

WPG: Nino Niederreiter (0.87 xG/60, 6G 6A, 3 HD goals, 8.6% shooting) | Kyle Connor (0.83 xG/60, 25G 30A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting)

Evenly matched on paper translates to a coin flip in practice.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WPG 51%
51%
WPG
Model favorite
49%
51%
NYR50WPG

WPG by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 2.4–2.5 WPG; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
NYR← edge
edge →WPG
48.0%48.0%
49.0%49.0%
2.262.34
2.402.55
1.881.90
1.902.10
1.0090.998

WPG holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 0.998) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
NYR
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
WPG
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
1.009
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch
  • Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.
Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
NYR
Adam Sykora3G 1A
0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh
Gabe Perreault8G 11A
0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh
WPG
Nino Niederreiter6G 6A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh
Kyle Connor25G 30A
0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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