The Flyers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.36–2.96 and won anyway.
The Flyers won this game the way teams shouldn't. Philadelphia edged Minnesota 3–2 in a shootout while losing the expected-goals battle 2.36–2.96—the Wild controlled 56% of shot quality, yet walked away empty in regulation.
This was Minnesota's to lose. The Wild generated higher-quality scoring chances, with five high-danger attempts to the Flyers' three. They dominated play at 5v5, where their xG advantage widened to 56%. Yet they scored just twice in regulation and lost the shootout, underperforming their model by 0.96 goals.
D. Vladar was the difference. The Flyers goaltender stopped 21 of 23 shots—a 0.913 save percentage that beat his expected performance by nearly a full goal. He was flawless on high-danger chances: five saves on five attempts. J. Wallstedt (MIN) posted a 0.926 SV%, but it wasn't enough to overcome Minnesota's conversion failures. The Wild went 0 for 5 on high-danger chances, a shortfall that won't repeat.
The Flyers were ruthless where it mattered most. Two of their three goals came from low-danger spots—the kind opposing goaltenders are supposed to handle. Yet Minnesota's rush game revealed something: the Wild scored twice on 32 rush attempts, while the Flyers scored twice on 27. Minnesota's transition play was more efficient, yet discipline in the shootout favored Philadelphia.
Minnesota had fewer shot attempts, 23 to 27. But the xG margins tell the real story—Minnesota created the better game, executed the worse result.
Final: PHI 3 – MIN 2 (SO)
Data: NHL API, MoneyPuck xG model
