The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Senators won 7–4 with the underlying numbers confirming their dominance: they controlled 68% of 5v5 expected goals (5.23–2.46). The striking metric, though, was chance conversion. Ottawa overperformed their xG by 1.77 goals; San Jose overperformed theirs by 1.54. Both teams finished above their expected tallies.
The structure of that dominance mattered more than volume. Ottawa held 52% of shot attempts (25–23 on goal), a modest edge, but their chances were dangerous: 8 high-danger opportunities to San Jose's 2. That quality gap—0.078 xG per shot versus 0.055—meant Ottawa didn't need a heavy volume advantage to control the game.
Ottawa's power play weaponized that edge. Two goals on eight shots (0.35 xG) gave the Senators a special-teams cushion that San Jose couldn't close. On the rush, Ottawa was lethal: six goals on 33 rush chances. San Jose generated three on 20 attempts, suggesting they had the structural opportunities but not the finish.
Goaltending amplified the gap. L. Ullmark (OTT) made 19 saves on 23 shots (0.826 SV%), steadying Ottawa through a workload their defense couldn't fully contain. L. Brossoit (SJS) stopped 18 of 23 (0.783 SV%), a workmanlike performance betrayed by the shot volume and danger his team faced. The margin wasn't enormous, but in a game where both teams exceeded their expected-goal totals, marginal advantages in save percentage converted to goals.