The Ducks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Montreal's surface metrics—52% shot attempts, 7–7 high-danger chances—belied a 4–3 loss driven entirely by finishing. The Canadiens converted none of their most dangerous looks. L. Dostal stopped all seven high-danger shots against him. That was the difference.
Expected goals split 4.33–4.73 in Anaheim's favor, suggesting a near-even game. Montreal underperformed their xG by 1.33 goals—a miss that, when plotted against Dostal's perfect high-danger defense, explains the result. Both teams were equally efficient from the rush (Montreal 3 goals on 30 chances, Anaheim 3 on 29), but Montreal's inability to finish from the slot and off rebounds eliminated any advantage from controlling play.
Cutter Gauthier's snap shot from the slot (P3, 17:30) exemplified Anaheim's precision in the areas that mattered. The Ducks underperformed their xG by 0.73 goals overall, yet when it counted—close to the net—they finished. Dostal's perfection at short range made Anaheim's otherwise modest performance sufficient.