The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Both teams left goals on the table, yet Edmonton won decisively—a gap that speaks to the Oilers' superiority in volume and efficiency. The Oilers underperformed their expected goals by 2.30; Nashville underperformed theirs by 2.70. That scoreline of 3-1 reflected a difference more fundamental than variance.
The Oilers controlled 53% of shot attempts and generated an 11-5 edge in high-danger chances. Their efficiency gap was staggering: 0.104 expected goals per shot versus Nashville's 0.067. On the rush, Edmonton converted 3 of 31 chances. Nashville's 5 high-danger chances and 4 rebound opportunities produced nothing—a conversion drought that, against a deeper team, costs games.
Expected goals finished 5.30-3.70 in Edmonton's favor (59-41%), with the underlying metrics aligning cleanly with the result.
C. Ingram's composure was the backbone of the win. He finished 26/27 (0.963 save percentage), posting a +2.70 mark against expectation—quiet excellence under pressure. But J. Annunen's 0.931 on 29 shots (+3.30 against expected) was a standout performance that still ended in defeat, a reminder that individual brilliance can't overcome a team's offensive failures.
