Motion-blurred skater in a Seattle Kraken sweater

Breakdown · FLA at SEA

Kraken pull away from the Panthers

FinalSun, Mar 15

The verdict · stolen

The Kraken stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.04–3.32 and won anyway.

FLA 2 · SEA 6

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:29 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Seattle's 6-2 victory masked an underlying contest the numbers favored Florida. The Panthers' 4.04 expected goals against the Kraken's 3.32 showed a team that generated the better chances but cashed in on none of them.

Eetu Luostarinen's backhander from the doorstep in the third period (19:58) marked the point where the Kraken's superior finishing overwhelmed Florida's territorial edge.

The high-danger chances told the clearest story: Florida generated 10 and converted zero. Seattle managed 4 and buried 2 — clinical efficiency where it mattered most. The Kraken's rush game proved lethal, producing 3 goals from 25 chances; Florida couldn't build the same momentum. Seattle also crashed the net relentlessly, converting 3 rebound opportunities from 4 created, while Florida managed just 1 rebound goal from 5 chances.

J. Daccord's performance was the difference-maker. His 0.920 save percentage (+2.04 vs expected) meant Seattle escaped with a win despite generating fewer expected goals. D. Tarasov faced the opposite fortune: he finished at 0.760 SV% (−2.68 vs expected), a rough night behind a goaltender who was buried by the final gap between performance and probability.

Shot volume stayed dead even (25 attempts each), but quality diverged sharply. Seattle's 0.077 expected goals per shot eclipsed Florida's 0.059 — a reminder that territory without precision is ornamental. The Kraken's finishing edge, combined with Daccord's excellence, overwhelmed a Florida team that created legitimate danger but couldn't finish it.

This is how teams win decisively without earning it completely: superior execution on the chances that mattered most, goaltending that peaked when needed, and an opponent that beat itself.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 15

FLA

SEA

Kraken pull away from the Panthers

Chances 4.0 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Panthers deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

FLA

4.04

SEA

3.32

55% of the chances45%

The board read FLA 2, SEA 6. The chances read FLA 4.0, SEA 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

SEA

+2.7

goals above expected

SEA3.32 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

FLA4.04 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Kraken scored 2.7 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 05:28SEAB. Meyers0–1
P1 11:52SEAB. Catton0–2
P1 12:07FLAV. Hinostroza1–2
P1 18:24SEAR. Winterton1–3
P2 03:20SEAK. Kakko1–4
P3 10:07SEAB. McMannPP1–5
P3 14:37SEAJ. Oleksiak1–6

+1 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

FLA

52 shots

Final

86 shots

SEA

34 shots

FLA SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

FLASEA

0 / 10

2.05 xG

High danger

2 / 4

1.08 xG

2 / 10

1.14 xG

Medium

4 / 17

1.89 xG

0 / 48

0.84 xG

Low

0 / 22

0.35 xG

The Panthers went 0 for 10 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Daccord

+2.0

SEA · 23/25

D. Tarasov

−2.7

FLA · 19/25

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Kraken pull away from the Panthers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–13

05:28SEAB. Meyers(R. Winterton, F. Gaudreau)0–1
11:52SEAB. Catton(K. Kakko, J. Oleksiak)0–2
12:07FLAV. Hinostroza(L. Kunin, J. Boqvist)1–2
18:24SEAR. Winterton(B. Meyers, B. Montour)1–3

2ndshots 7–5

03:20SEAK. Kakko(V. Dunn, B. Catton)1–4

3rdshots 8–7

10:07SEAB. McMannpower play(K. Kakko, E. Tolvanen)1–5
14:37SEAJ. Oleksiak(B. McMann, J. Eberle)1–6
19:58FLAE. Luostarinen(G. Forsling, M. Samoskevich)2–6

score reads FLA–SEA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.32

SEA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.7

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.110

SEA puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

38.7%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.04Expected goals3.32

FLA 55% of the chance quality

25Shots on goal25

10High-danger chances4

68All attempts (Corsi)43

Adjusted for score: FLA 67% · SEA 33%

Faceoffs · SEA won29%off45%neu59%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

FLA0 / 10 · 2.05 xG

SEA2 / 4 · 1.08 xG

Medium dangermid-range

FLA2 / 10 · 1.14 xG

SEA4 / 17 · 1.89 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

FLA0 / 48 · 0.84 xG

SEA0 / 22 · 0.35 xG

SEA went 4-for-17 from medium danger on 1.89 expected goals — 2.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

FLA

2 G · 4.04 xG · -2.0

SEA

6 G · 3.32 xG · +2.7

01234567

FLA finished -2.0 against expected, SEA +2.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

FLA

WRIST1/28

TIP IN0/10

BACKHAND1/5

SNAP0/5

SLAP0/2

BAT0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/16

SEA

WRIST4/23

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND0/2

SNAP0/0

SLAP0/3

BAT1/1

DEFLECTED1/1

OTHER0/9

FLA

SEA

Off the rush

1 G on 27

2.71 xG

3 G on 25

2.60 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 5

0.70 xG

3 G on 4

0.58 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: FLA went 1-for-28, SEA 4-for-23. SEA scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

D. Tarasov

FLA · 19/25 · .760

-2.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/41.1-0.9

Medium4/171.9-2.1

Low0/220.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Daccord

SEA · 23/25 · .920

+2.0

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/102.0+2.0

Medium2/101.1-0.9

Low0/480.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

86 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

FLA

52 shots

Final

86 shots

SEA

34 shots

FLA SEA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

K. Kakko

#84 · R · SEA

1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 11:47 on ice · +1

B. McMann

#74 · C · SEA

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 19:36 on ice · +1

B. Meyers

#59 · C · SEA

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 15:46 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Mar 15

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:44 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects this as FLA 2.5 - 2.5 SEA with the Panthers at 50% win probability — a pick 'em that reflects genuine parity.

Recent form tips toward Florida. The Panthers are 5-5-0 in their last 10, while Seattle sits at -12 goal differential over the same stretch. Yet season-long underlying numbers complicate the picture. Florida leads in expected goals percentage (49.0% to 46.0%) and Corsi (52.0% to 45.0%), both measures of shot and puck control. Seattle's PDO of 1.011 edges Florida's 0.989, indicating the Kraken have benefited from conversion luck that typically regresses.

The Panthers drive territorial play at 52.0% Corsi. Sam Bennett is the offensive fulcrum: 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes, 18 goals, 19 assists, and 6 high-danger chances, all powered by a 13.1% shooting rate that ranks well above average. Brad Marchand carries 0.93 xG/60, 17 goals, and a 19.5% shooting percentage — both players finishing at elite rates, though regression is coming. Marchand is also Florida's primary defensive weak link.

Seattle counters with youth and patience. Shane Wright has 0.77 xG/60, 8 goals, 10 assists, and 4 high-danger chances despite a 10.4% shooting rate well below normal production. Berkly Catton shows 0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists, and 5 high-danger chances at 8.8% shooting, suggesting both young forwards have room for positive variance. The Kraken's defensive vulnerability is Chandler Stephenson.

Florida's underlying metrics point one way — more possession, better shot quality. Seattle's PDO luck and Florida's misfortune point the other. Over a full season, the Panthers' edge emerges. Over one night, regression and chance dominate. The model's 50-50 projection is the only honest take.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

FLA 51%

51%

FLA

Model favorite

51%

49%

FLA50SEA

FLA by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score FLA 2.5–2.5 SEA; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

FLA← edge

edge →SEA

49.0%46.0%

52.0%45.0%

2.482.13

2.562.51

1.981.87

2.211.95

0.9891.011

FLA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

FLA

5-5-0

-4 GD · 3d rest

SEA

3-7-0

-12 GD · 2d rest

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.011

SEA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Panthers are the hotter team by points pace (5-5-0 in their last 10).
The Kraken are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

FLA

Expected in goal

S. Bobrovsky

3 days rest.968 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SEA

Expected in goal

P. Grubauer

2 days rest.818 last start

Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

SEA

Shane Wright8G 10A

0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh

Berkly Catton6G 8A

0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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