The Penguins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.26–3.92 and won anyway.
Pittsburgh won 7-2 despite ceding 63% of expected goals. A. Silovs turned the game into a robbery.
Colorado controlled play at 5v5, holding 57% of shot attempts and 63% of xG (3.92–2.26). The Avalanche generated six high-danger chances to Pittsburgh's four. By every reasonable measure, they played better. They lost.
This was a goaltending mismatch in slow motion. Silovs stopped 1.92 goals above his expected save percentage, making 25 of 27 shots look routine. M. Blackwood, Colorado's primary starter, surrendered 2.30 goals more than expected and allowed 11 of 15 in limited action before S. Wedgewood took over and lasted exactly two saves on five shots (0.400 SV%).
Pittsburgh converted at an elite clip. E. Malkin scored twice on 16:18 of ice time. E. Karlsson added a goal and two assists in 21:44, controlling play from the perimeter. B. Rust chipped in a goal and assist. The three combined for five of Pittsburgh's seven goals—exactly the efficiency Colorado lacked. The Avalanche managed 0-for-6 on high-danger chances while Pittsburgh went 2-for-4 in those spots. That margin doesn't hold in rematches.
Noel Acciari's wrist shot from the doorstep in the third period was the turning point, arriving when momentum had already tilted sharply. Pittsburgh's rush game was lethal: five goals on 19 rush chances showed how thoroughly they punished Colorado's attempts to push pace.
Colorado underperformed their expected goals by 1.92—a sign that even by their underlying metrics, they couldn't finish. Pittsburgh overperformed by 4.74. Elite goaltending and ruthless execution in the other direction turned a closer game into a rout.
