Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · NYI at TOR

Islanders hold off the Maple Leafs

FinalTue, Mar 17

NYINew York Islanders3 TORToronto Maple Leafs1

The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYI 3 · TOR 1

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:35 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Toronto had more high-danger chances (7-5) but scored zero on them and lost 3-1. The difference was I. Sorokin, who stopped 2.4 goals above expected and saved all 7 high-danger shots he faced. Exceptional goaltending decided the game.

The broader structure still favored the Islanders. They controlled 56% of 5v5 expected goals (4.20–3.35) and out-attempted the Leafs 34–27. New York's power play was dominant—2 goals on 15 shots (1.23 xG). But none of that mattered as much as Sorokin's night. The Leafs created quality chances; they simply could not bury them.

J. Woll played well for Toronto. He made 31 of 34 saves (0.912 SV%) and exceeded his expected performance by 1.20 goals. That would win most nights. Not this one.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 17

NYI

TOR

Islanders hold off the Maple Leafs

Chances 4.2 – 3.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

4.20

TOR

3.35

56% of the chances44%

The board read NYI 3, TOR 1. The chances read NYI 4.2, TOR 3.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

−1.2

goals above expected

NYI4.20 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

TOR3.35 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Maple Leafs left 2.4 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:15NYIB. SchennPP1–0
P1 09:43NYIC. RitchiePP2–0
P2 04:40TORS. Lorentz2–1
P2 11:57NYIE. Heineman3–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

53 shots

Final

96 shots

TOR

43 shots

NYI TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYITOR

1 / 5

1.20 xG

High danger

0 / 7

1.76 xG

2 / 24

2.41 xG

Medium

1 / 9

0.96 xG

0 / 38

0.59 xG

Low

0 / 35

0.63 xG

The Maple Leafs went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

I. Sorokin

+2.4

NYI · 26/27

B+

J. Woll

+1.2

TOR · 31/34

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders hold off the Maple Leafs

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 12–8

04:15NYIB. Schennpower play(C. Ritchie, M. Barzal)1–0
09:43NYIC. Ritchiepower play(M. Barzal, M. Schaefer)2–0

2ndshots 8–8

04:40TORS. Lorentz(B. Groulx)2–1
11:57NYIE. Heineman(T. DeAngelo, M. Barzal)3–1

3rdshots 14–11no goals

score reads NYI–TOR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.20

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.2

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.025

NYI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

56.8%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.20Expected goals3.35

NYI 56% of the chance quality

34Shots on goal27

5High-danger chances7

67All attempts (Corsi)51

Adjusted for score: NYI 50% · TOR 50%

Faceoffs · TOR won38%off65%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI1 / 5 · 1.20 xG

TOR0 / 7 · 1.76 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI2 / 24 · 2.41 xG

TOR1 / 9 · 0.96 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI0 / 38 · 0.59 xG

TOR0 / 35 · 0.63 xG

TOR went 0-for-7 from high danger on 1.76 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

3 G · 4.20 xG · -1.2

TOR

1 G · 3.35 xG · -2.4

012345

NYI finished -1.2 against expected, TOR -2.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

WRIST2/27

SNAP0/6

TIP IN0/11

SLAP1/5

BACKHAND0/3

POKE0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/14

TOR

WRIST1/18

SNAP0/14

TIP IN0/1

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND0/2

POKE0/0

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/8

NYI

TOR

Off the rush

1 G on 36

2.89 xG

1 G on 24

2.07 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 3

0.50 xG

0 G on 4

0.89 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYI went 2-for-27, TOR 1-for-18.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 26/27 · .963

+2.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/71.8+1.8

Medium1/91.0-0.0

Low0/350.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Woll

TOR · 31/34 · .912

+1.2

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.2+0.2

Medium2/242.4+0.4

Low0/380.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

96 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

53 shots

Final

96 shots

TOR

43 shots

NYI TOR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, TOR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Barzal

#13 · C · NYI

0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 18:31 on ice · +1

C. Ritchie

#64 · C · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 15:06 on ice · -1

M. Schaefer

#48 · D · NYI

0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 22:57 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Mar 17

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 7:44 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The projection model calls this a dead heat: 2.6 goals for each side, with the Maple Leafs at exactly 50% win probability.

The Islanders arrive hotter, at 7-3-0 over their last 10. Toronto is underwater at -15 goal differential through the same stretch.

At 5v5, the Islanders hold a 48.0% expected-goals share to Toronto's 46.0%, and dominate territorial play at 49.0% Corsi to 45.0%. The Leafs' puck luck is keeping them afloat: their season PDO sits at 1.002 compared to the Islanders' 0.993, meaning Toronto's scoring at a sustainable advantage despite driving fewer chances.

The Islanders center their attack around Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. Lee generates 1.20 expected goals per 60 minutes with 9 goals and 20 assists, though his 6.4% shooting rate suggests regression; his 2 high-danger goals show he finds premium ice. Horvat carries 18 goals at 12.8% shooting, though his 0.87 xG/60 means he's converting at an unsustainable rate; he's also posted 3 high-danger goals.

Toronto counters with Auston Matthews at 1.10 xG/60, carrying 17 goals and 13 assists on a 10.6% shot rate with 1 high-danger goal. John Tavares runs 0.91 xG/60 with 15 goals and 24 assists, also with 3 high-danger goals.

Both teams sit at 0% on high-danger and rebound goals—suggesting cautious play in dangerous areas. The Islanders' defensive weak link is Alexander Romanov; Toronto's is Bo Groulx. Neither has built margin elsewhere, so execution on the chances that matter decides this.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

TOR 50%

50%

TOR

Model favorite

50%

NYI50TOR

TOR by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 2.6–2.6 TOR; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →TOR

48.0%46.0%

49.0%45.0%

2.482.24

2.692.67

1.782.09

1.942.52

0.9931.002

NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.002) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

7-3-0

+1 GD · 3d rest

TOR

2-5-3

-15 GD · 2d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.002

TOR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Islanders drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Islanders drive Corsi at 49.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
The Maple Leafs are underwater at -15 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

D. Rittich

3 days rest.938 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

TOR

Expected in goal

A. Stolarz

2 days rest.947 last start

Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

TOR

Auston Matthews17G 13A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh

John Tavares15G 24A

0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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