The Sabres stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.03–3.99 and won anyway.
Vegas controlled the game and lost it anyway. The Golden Knights held 54% of shot attempts and 57% of expected goals—3.99 to Buffalo's 3.03—but couldn't finish, and U. Luukkonen closed the door at 29/29.
That xG split tells you Vegas was the better team operationally; the scoreboard tells you it didn't matter. Buffalo didn't need to be dominant. They needed J. Norris's wrist shot from the top of the circles in the third period (19:02) to open it, then one more to seal it. Vegas, meanwhile, went 0/7 on high-danger chances—the most damning stat of the night.
The goaltending gap explains the rest. Luukkonen finished at 1.000 SV%, stopping 3.99 goals above expected—meaning he made saves that would beat a league-average tender. A. Hill (VGK) stopped 2.03 above expected on 23/24 attempts, respectable work that simply couldn't match the Sabres' wall.
Vegas's collapse on quality looks is the real lesson here. They created 7 high-danger chances and converted zero—a failure of finish, not setup. Buffalo's rush game, by contrast, was surgical: 2 goals on 26 attempts. When one team dominates territory but can't score, and the other scores on efficiency, the scoreboard is right.
Three Stars
- #23 M. Samuelsson (BUF), 1A in 22:20
- #91 J. Doan (BUF), 1G in 13:30
- #9 J. Norris (BUF), 1G in 13:28
