The Lightning earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Tampa Bay's 6-2 victory involved substantially better finishing than the underlying metrics alone would suggest — they outscored their expected goals by 2.80, a gap that speaks to either elite execution or favorable fortune, likely both. Still, the underlying numbers remain decidedly in their favor: they controlled 64% of 5v5 expected goals (3.20–1.79) and utterly dominated high-danger areas, five clear chances to Seattle's one.
The Kraken's structural disadvantage started at puck drop. They held just 41% of shot attempts and mustered exactly one high-danger chance. Their goaltender, Philipp Grubauer, surrendered 1.80 more goals than the shot quality warranted, finishing at 0.800 save percentage. Andrei Vasilevskiy, meanwhile, settled at 0.889 while commanding the crease.
The conversion gap proved decisive. Tampa finished four of five high-danger chances (80%), a clinical rate reflecting sustained offensive pressure. Seattle responded with pace, scoring twice on 17 rush attempts, but was overwhelmed by Tampa's six goals on 26 transitions — a rush game built on relentless volume.
Nikita Kucherov's wrist shot from the high slot in the third period crystallized the Lightning's dominance, but the game was settled long before. Seattle lacked the puck, lacked the chances, and lacked any realistic avenue to victory once the opening faceoff concluded.