The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Devils won 6-3, but the underlying numbers showed a wider gap: New Jersey controlled 70% of 5v5 expected goals (4.86–2.11), a dominance the scoreline downplays.
The Rangers held just 32% of shot attempts (18–39) and generated only three high-danger chances to the Devils' eight. Yet they managed to overperform their xG by 0.89 goals—Rangers finished 3 on 2.11 expected. The Devils also beat their model, scoring 1.14 goals over their 4.86 xG. Both teams punched above their chances.
New Jersey's power play was the difference. They converted twice on 11 shots (1.18 xG), making the advantage count when it mattered. On even strength, the Devils generated superior looks: 0.075 xG per shot versus the Rangers' 0.049. New Jersey also capitalized on rush opportunities, scoring four goals on 32 rush chances. The Rangers found just two in 18.
The Devils' shot quality told the story. Two of their tallies came from low-danger spots—the kind that demand perfection from opposing goalies. J. Quick (NYR) finished 33/39 saves (0.846 SV%) but gave up 1.14 goals above expected. J. Markstrom (NJD) stopped 15/18 (0.833 SV%) but underperformed by 0.89.