Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater

Breakdown · NYI at MTL

Canadiens run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Mar 21

NYINew York Islanders3 MTLMontreal Canadiens7

The verdict · earned

The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYI 3 · MTL 7

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:20 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal's 7-3 victory over the Islanders represented a clean sweep across every quality metric: they controlled 66% of 5v5 expected goals (4.88–2.55), held 62% of shot attempts, and finished 2.12 goals above their xG projection. That overperformance revealed elite execution.

The Canadiens' dominance began with shot quality. They generated chances at 0.073 xG per shot compared to New York's 0.051—a gap that compounded across every situation. On the rush, that difference meant five Montreal goals on 30 chances versus two New York goals on 21. On the power play, Montreal's 3 goals on 8 shots (1.05 xG) represented clinical efficiency; high volume plus high percentage is the blueprint for routs.

Goaltending validated Montreal's control. I. Sorokin (NYI) posted a 0.812 save percentage, 1.66 goals below expected on 26 shots—a betrayal of the workload he faced. J. Fowler (MTL) recorded a 0.864 save percentage, anchoring the line.

Cole Caufield's snap shot from a sharp angle (P3, 14:59) didn't decide the game; Montreal had already done that through structure and execution.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 21

NYI

MTL

Canadiens run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.5 – 4.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Canadiens earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

2.55

MTL

4.88

34% of the chances66%

The board read NYI 3, MTL 7. The chances read NYI 2.5, MTL 4.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

MTL

+2.1

goals above expected

MTL4.88 expected · 7 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI2.55 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Canadiens scored 2.1 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:10MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0–1
P1 06:46NYIE. HeinemanPP1–1
P1 13:19NYIS. Holmstrom2–1
P2 17:49MTLA. Newhook2–2
P2 19:08MTLC. CaufieldPP2–3
P3 00:45NYIM. SchaeferPP3–3
P3 03:17MTLK. Guhle3–4

+3 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

30 shots

Final

84 shots

MTL

54 shots

NYI MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 7 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYIMTL

0 / 4

0.95 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.41 xG

1 / 11

1.24 xG

Medium

5 / 24

2.92 xG

2 / 35

0.36 xG

Low

1 / 38

0.56 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

D. Rittich

+3.9

NYI · 3/4

J. Fowler

−0.5

MTL · 19/22

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Canadiens run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–17

04:10MTLJ. Slafkovskýpower play(N. Suzuki, C. Caufield)0–1
06:46NYIE. Heinemanpower play(A. Lee, T. DeAngelo)1–1
13:19NYIS. Holmstrom(A. Pelech)2–1

2ndshots 8–7

17:49MTLA. Newhook(K. Guhle, O. Kapanen)2–2
19:08MTLC. Caufieldpower play(N. Suzuki, J. Slafkovský)2–3

3rdshots 8–12

00:45NYIM. Schaeferpower play(M. Barzal, B. Horvat)3–3
03:17MTLK. Guhle(A. Carrier, B. Gallagher)3–4
08:08MTLJ. Slafkovský(C. Caufield, N. Suzuki)3–5
11:20MTLC. Caufield(J. Slafkovský, K. Guhle)3–6
14:59MTLC. Caufieldpower play(N. Suzuki)3–7

score reads NYI–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.88

MTL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.044

MTL puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

57.3%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.55Expected goals4.88

MTL 66% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal36

4High-danger chances5

50All attempts (Corsi)67

Adjusted for score: NYI 43% · MTL 57%

Faceoffs · MTL won46%off52%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI0 / 4 · 0.95 xG

MTL1 / 5 · 1.41 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI1 / 11 · 1.24 xG

MTL5 / 24 · 2.92 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI2 / 35 · 0.36 xG

MTL1 / 38 · 0.56 xG

MTL went 5-for-24 from medium danger on 2.92 expected goals — 2.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

3 G · 2.55 xG · +0.5

MTL

7 G · 4.88 xG · +2.1

012345678

NYI finished +0.5 against expected, MTL +2.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

SNAP1/19

TIP IN0/2

SLAP1/4

BACKHAND0/1

WRIST1/3

POKE0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/20

MTL

SNAP5/33

TIP IN0/7

SLAP2/4

BACKHAND0/6

WRIST0/1

POKE0/1

DEFLECTED0/2

OTHER0/13

NYI

MTL

Off the rush

2 G on 21

2.32 xG

5 G on 30

3.02 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

0 G on 6

1.12 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYI went 1-for-19, MTL 5-for-33. MTL scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 26/32 · .812

-1.1

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.4+0.4

Medium5/242.9-2.1

Low1/380.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich

NYI · 3/4 · .750

+3.9

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.4+0.4

Medium5/242.9-2.1

Low1/380.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Fowler

MTL · 19/22 · .864

-0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium1/111.2+0.2

Low2/350.4-1.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

84 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

30 shots

Final

84 shots

MTL

54 shots

NYI MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

C. Caufield

#13 · R · MTL

3 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 16:07 on ice · +2

N. Suzuki

#14 · C · MTL

0 G · 4 A · 3 SOG · 18:47 on ice · +2

J. Slafkovský

#20 · L · MTL

2 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 17:14 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Mar 21

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:18 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.7 goal game with the Canadiens at 52% win probability—as close to pick 'em as the margins allow.

The underlying numbers explain the symmetry. Both teams possess identical 5v5 production: 48.0% expected goals percentage, 49.0% Corsi percentage. When elite metrics align this closely, variance dominates outcomes. The Canadiens run a 1.018 PDO, running hot enough to expect regression as the season tightens.

Cole Caufield carries Montreal's offensive load: 0.97 xG/60, 33 goals and 16 assists, with a 20.0% shooting rate that outpaces his underlying chances by a significant margin. Oliver Kapanen provides secondary depth at 0.83 xG/60, 19 goals and 12 assists with a 17.8% shooting rate to monitor.

Anders Lee anchors New York's attack at 1.20 xG/60—their elite shot-creation rate—with 9 goals and 20 assists, though his 6.4% shooting rate suggests exposure against quality goaltending. Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60) has generated 18 goals and 10 assists with a 12.8% shooting rate.

Defensively, Montreal's concerns center on Mike Matheson. New York's on Alexander Romanov. This is close to a true toss-up.

Players to Watch

New York Islanders

Anders Lee — 1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting Bo Horvat — 0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting

Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield — 0.97 xG/60, 33G 16A, 1 HD goals, 20.0% shooting Oliver Kapanen — 0.83 xG/60, 19G 12A, 4 HD goals, 17.8% shooting

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MTL 52%

52%

MTL

Model favorite

48%

52%

NYI50MTL

MTL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYI 2.5–2.7 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →MTL

48.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.482.41

2.692.62

1.782.24

1.941.96

0.9931.018

MTL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.018) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

6-4-0

-1 GD · 2d rest

MTL

5-4-1

+1 GD · 2d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

2 days rest.889 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL

Expected in goal

J. Dobes

2 days rest.926 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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