Motion-blurred skater in a Ottawa Senators sweater

Breakdown · TOR at OTT

Senators run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Mar 21

TORToronto Maple Leafs2 OTTOttawa Senators5

The verdict · earned

The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

TOR 2 · OTT 5

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:19 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Ottawa's 5-2 win over Toronto understates their dominance—the Senators controlled 76% of 5v5 expected goals (6.61–2.08). This level of offensive control made even their lopsided scoreline feel close relative to the underlying production.

The Senators held 76% of shot attempts (44–14) and generated 9 high-danger chances to Toronto's 5. Yet they underperformed their xG by 1.61 goals while J. Woll, the Leafs' goalie, saved 1.61 above expected on 39 stops. Two of Ottawa's goals came from low-danger spots a goaltender should have stopped. The Senators' efficiency came through execution on the rush (3 goals from 45 chances) and crashing the net (2 rebounds converted from 6 created). Toronto converted 1 rebound from 3 attempts.

L. Ullmark (OTT) made 12 saves on 14 shots.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 21

TOR

OTT

Senators run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.1 – 6.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Senators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

TOR

2.08

OTT

6.61

24% of the chances76%

The board read TOR 2, OTT 5. The chances read TOR 2.1, OTT 6.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

OTT

−1.6

goals above expected

OTT6.61 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

TOR2.08 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 14:58OTTT. StützlePP0–1
P2 09:09OTTC. Giroux0–2
P2 17:53OTTW. Foegele0–3
P2 18:14TORJ. Tavares1–3
P3 04:52TORE. Cowan2–3
P3 09:41OTTM. Amadio2–4
P3 13:11OTTR. Greig2–5

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

TOR

20 shots

Final

87 shots

OTT

67 shots

TOR OTT GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

TOROTT

1 / 5

1.11 xG

High danger

1 / 9

2.90 xG

1 / 5

0.56 xG

Medium

2 / 25

2.71 xG

0 / 23

0.40 xG

Low

2 / 39

0.99 xG

High-danger looks: TOR 1 of 5, OTT 1 of 9.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Woll

+1.6

TOR · 39/44

L. Ullmark

+0.1

OTT · 12/14

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Senators run the Maple Leafs off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–9

14:58OTTT. Stützlepower play(T. Chabot, D. Batherson)0–1

2ndshots 5–20

09:09OTTC. Giroux(T. Kleven, J. Spence)0–2
17:53OTTW. Foegele0–3
18:14TORJ. Tavares(E. Cowan, B. Carlo)1–3

3rdshots 3–15

04:52TORE. Cowan(S. Benoit, W. Nylander)2–3
09:41OTTM. Amadio(J. Spence, S. Pinto)2–4
13:11OTTR. Greig(D. Cozens, T. Kleven)2–5

score reads TOR–OTT

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

6.61

OTT chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.6

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.008

OTT puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

68.9%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.08Expected goals6.61

OTT 76% of the chance quality

14Shots on goal44

5High-danger chances9

33All attempts (Corsi)73

Adjusted for score: TOR 35% · OTT 65%

Faceoffs · OTT won75%off55%neu44%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

TOR1 / 5 · 1.11 xG

OTT1 / 9 · 2.90 xG

Medium dangermid-range

TOR1 / 5 · 0.56 xG

OTT2 / 25 · 2.71 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

TOR0 / 23 · 0.40 xG

OTT2 / 39 · 0.99 xG

OTT went 1-for-9 from high danger on 2.90 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

TOR

2 G · 2.08 xG · -0.1

OTT

5 G · 6.61 xG · -1.6

01234567

TOR finished -0.1 against expected, OTT -1.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

TOR

WRIST2/13

TIP IN0/2

SNAP0/3

SLAP0/1

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/13

OTT

WRIST3/42

TIP IN0/6

SNAP0/5

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND2/4

DEFLECTED0/3

OTHER0/6

TOR

OTT

Off the rush

1 G on 15

1.17 xG

3 G on 45

4.20 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 3

0.62 xG

2 G on 6

1.28 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: TOR went 2-for-13, OTT 3-for-42. OTT scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Woll

TOR · 39/44 · .886

+1.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/92.9+1.9

Medium2/252.7+0.7

Low2/391.0-1.0

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Ullmark

OTT · 12/14 · .857

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.1+0.1

Medium1/50.6-0.4

Low0/230.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

87 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

TOR

20 shots

Final

87 shots

OTT

67 shots

TOR OTT GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — TOR left, OTT right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Spence

#10 · D · OTT

0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 19:51 on ice · +2

T. Kleven

#43 · D · OTT

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 18:13 on ice · +2

E. Cowan

#53 · R · TOR

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:04 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Mar 21

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:17 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.2–2.8 goal spread with Ottawa at 61% win probability. The underlying play tilts more decisively toward the visitors.

Ottawa owns momentum where Toronto doesn't. The Senators are 7-2-1 in their last 10; the Maple Leafs sit at -11 in goal differential over the same stretch. At 5v5, Ottawa generates 56.0% of expected goals against Toronto's 46.0%, and dominates Corsi at 53.0% to 45.0%. Toronto's PDO sits at 1.002—unsustainable finishing luck. Ottawa's 0.993 suggests their underlying edge will eventually surface.

J. Woll on a back-to-back tilts the goaltending matchup toward Ottawa, whether Toronto starts him or pivots to a backup.

Auston Matthews, Toronto's most explosive threat, hasn't played in 9 days and is likely unavailable. John Tavares (0.91 xG/60, 15G 24A, 12.4% shooting) carries volume but signals regression potential. Brady Tkachuk generates more per shot at 1.19 xG/60 with 11G 20A and 7.5% shooting. Dylan Cozens (1.00 xG/60, 13G 15A, 9.5% shooting) completes Ottawa's dangerous quartet.

Both teams carry 0% rates on high-danger and rebound goals, neutralizing that defensive concern. Toronto's weak link—Bo Groulx—will see minutes; Nick Jensen operates as Ottawa's comparable liability, but faces fewer high-volume threats.

Ottawa claims every edge.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 61%

61%

OTT

Model favorite

39%

61%

TOR50OTT

OTT by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score TOR 2.2–2.8 OTT; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

TOR← edge

edge →OTT

46.0%56.0%

45.0%53.0%

2.242.66

2.672.12

2.092.18

2.521.99

1.0020.993

OTT holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 0.993) says TOR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

TOR

2-4-4

-11 GD · 1d rest

OTT

7-2-1

+12 GD · 2d rest

1.002

TOR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

OTT PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Woll is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
The Maple Leafs are underwater at -11 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

TOR

Expected in goal

J. Woll

back-to-back.889 last start

Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

OTT

Expected in goal

J. Reimer

2 days rest.895 last start

Backup Linus Ullmark · -12.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

TOR

Auston Matthews17G 13A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh

John Tavares15G 24A

0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh

OTT

Brady Tkachuk11G 20A

1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh

Dylan Cozens13G 15A

1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page