Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater

Breakdown · VGK at DAL

Golden Knights run the Stars off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSun, Mar 22

VGKVegas Golden Knights3 DALDallas Stars2

The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

VGK 3 · DAL 2

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:36 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Golden Knights' 3-2 win over the Stars masked a far more dominant underlying performance. Vegas controlled 62% of expected goals (3.98 to 2.41)—the kind of xG edge that suggests the scoreline flattered Dallas.

The Stars managed only 31% of shot attempts (15 to 33), generating 38% of expected goals despite losing by one. C. DeSmith kept Dallas in it with 30 saves on 33 shots (0.909 SV%), performing +0.98 above expected—an outlier performance. A. Hill stopped 13 of 15 shots (0.867 SV%) for Vegas.

But Vegas won on efficiency. The team scored 3 goals on 34 rush chances while generating 7 high-danger opportunities to Dallas's 5. Reilly Smith's snap shot from the doorstep made it 2-1 Vegas—a moment that epitomized the match: Vegas attacking from scoring areas; Dallas defending in a hole.

The Stars fought back by attacking the net, generating three rebound opportunities and converting one, but couldn't overcome the underlying deficit. M. Heiskanen led Dallas with an assist in 26:08, while Vegas's M. Marner (22:14) and S. Theodore (21:28) both chipped in assists.

DeSmith's strong night prevented the margin from expanding, but even a 0.909 SV% cannot erase a 33-15 shot disadvantage and a 7-5 edge in high-danger chances. The underlying numbers confirmed what the score should have been: a Vegas blowout.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 22

VGK

DAL

Golden Knights run the Stars off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.0 – 2.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

3.98

DAL

2.41

62% of the chances38%

The board read VGK 3, DAL 2. The chances read VGK 4.0, DAL 2.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

VGK

−1.0

goals above expected

VGK3.98 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

DAL2.41 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:01VGKB. McNabb1–0
P1 10:55DALW. JohnstonPP1–1
P1 16:48DALJ. Hryckowian1–2
P2 09:10VGKI. BarbashevPP2–2
P3 16:22VGKR. Smith3–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

46 shots

Final

71 shots

DAL

25 shots

VGK DAL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKDAL

1 / 7

1.74 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.31 xG

2 / 16

1.51 xG

Medium

1 / 6

0.55 xG

0 / 49

0.72 xG

Low

0 / 27

0.54 xG

High-danger looks: VGK 1 of 7, DAL 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

C. DeSmith

+1.0

DAL · 30/33

A. Hill

+0.4

VGK · 13/15

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Golden Knights run the Stars off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–6

04:01VGKB. McNabb(K. Kolesar, S. Theodore)1–0
10:55DALW. Johnstonpower play(M. Duchene, M. Heiskanen)1–1
16:48DALJ. Hryckowian(C. Blackwell, S. Steel)1–2

2ndshots 11–3

09:10VGKI. Barbashevpower play(B. Howden, C. Sissons)2–2

3rdshots 15–6

16:22VGKR. Smith(M. Marner, P. Dorofeyev)3–2

score reads VGK–DAL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.98

VGK chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.0

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

0.989

VGK puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

65.5%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.98Expected goals2.41

VGK 62% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal15

7High-danger chances5

72All attempts (Corsi)38

Adjusted for score: VGK 65% · DAL 35%

Faceoffs · DAL won27%off43%neu54%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK1 / 7 · 1.74 xG

DAL1 / 5 · 1.31 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK2 / 16 · 1.51 xG

DAL1 / 6 · 0.55 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK0 / 49 · 0.72 xG

DAL0 / 27 · 0.54 xG

VGK went 1-for-7 from high danger on 1.74 expected goals — 0.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

3 G · 3.98 xG · -1.0

DAL

2 G · 2.41 xG · -0.4

012345

VGK finished -1.0 against expected, DAL -0.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

SNAP3/23

WRIST0/8

TIP IN0/6

SLAP0/4

BACKHAND0/5

BAT0/0

OTHER0/26

DAL

SNAP1/8

WRIST1/6

TIP IN0/6

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/13

VGK

DAL

Off the rush

3 G on 34

3.49 xG

1 G on 17

1.82 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.23 xG

1 G on 3

0.44 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: VGK went 3-for-23, DAL 1-for-8. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

A. Hill

VGK · 13/15 · .867

+0.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.3+0.3

Medium1/60.6-0.5

Low0/270.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. DeSmith

DAL · 30/33 · .909

+1.0

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.7+0.7

Medium2/161.5-0.5

Low0/490.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

71 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

46 shots

Final

71 shots

DAL

25 shots

VGK DAL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, DAL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Heiskanen

#4 · D · DAL

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 26:08 on ice

M. Marner

#93 · R · VGK

0 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 22:14 on ice · +1

S. Theodore

#27 · D · VGK

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 21:28 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Mar 22

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:26 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.4-2.3 Golden Knights victory with Vegas at 51% win probability—as close to even odds as these things come.

Dallas enters hot: 7-1-2 over their last ten games. Vegas, by contrast, is underwater at -6 goal differential in the same span. That recency shouldn't fool you. The underlying data runs the other direction.

Vegas dominates possession—54.0% expected goals and 52.0% Corsi at 5v5, versus Dallas's 51.0% xG% and 47.0% Corsi%. Expect the Golden Knights to control play, which they'll need to overcome Dallas's efficiency edge. The Stars' PDO sits at 1.024, running hot enough to expect regression. Vegas checks in at 0.983, due for positive regression from the other direction.

Goaltending presents a variable: both J. Oettinger and A. Schmid are on back-to-backs, so backup duty or tired starters remain in play.

Vegas's offensive depth will be tested. Tomas Hertl carries 0.88 xG per 60 with a team-leading 5 goals and 17 assists, hitting at 4.3%. Brandon Saad, who otherwise rates at 0.91 xG/60 with a 4.1% shooting touch, is marked likely inactive, reshaping what Vegas can throw at Dallas.

Dallas counters with Jason Robertson—0.96 xG/60, 25 goals, 21 assists, and a lethal 12.4% shooting rate. Michael Bunting (8 goals, 7.6% shooting) adds secondary depth at 0.83 xG/60.

Defensively, Vegas's weak link is Rasmus Andersson; Dallas's is Tyler Myers. Both teams sit at 0% high-danger and rebound goal rates, suggesting structured defending that eliminates the scramble game.

The verdict lands on process: Vegas has the underlying play but Dallas has the recent form. With goaltending uncertainty and Dallas riding hot, this genuinely teeters. The model's 51% for Vegas carries legitimate conviction, but only just.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 51%

51%

VGK

Model favorite

51%

49%

VGK50DAL

VGK by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.4–2.3 DAL; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →DAL

54.0%51.0%

52.0%47.0%

2.522.36

2.112.29

2.122.07

2.101.68

0.9831.024

VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.024) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

3-7-0

-6 GD · 1d rest

DAL

7-1-2

+14 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.024

DAL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
J. Oettinger is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
A. Schmid is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Stars are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
The Golden Knights are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Schmid

back-to-back.800 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

DAL

Expected in goal

J. Oettinger

back-to-back.929 last start

Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

DAL

Jason Robertson25G 21A

0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh

Michael Bunting8G 14A

0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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