The Flames stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.82–3.00 and won anyway.
Calgary's 4-3 overtime victory over Tampa Bay was a heist: the Lightning dominated expected goals 3.82–3.00 and controlled 56% at 5v5, yet left empty-handed. The Flames won by finishing, not by outplaying.
The differential was stark. Calgary held just 45% of shot attempts (29–35) and trailed in high-danger chances 3–6. On volume, Tampa Bay was the better team. But expected goals measure opportunity, not execution—and execution is what won the game.
Goaltending tilted the balance. D. Cooley (Calgary) saved 32 of 35 shots at 0.914 SV%, outperforming his expected save percentage by 0.82 goals. J. Johansson (Tampa Bay) made 25 saves on 29 shots at 0.862 SV%, underperforming by 1.00 goal—a two-goal swing entirely on goalie performance. That gap determined the outcome.
Calgary's scoring came at high leverage. The Flames converted at elite efficiency on the rush: 3 goals from 26 chances. Tampa Bay generated 6 rebound opportunities and converted none, a sign they crashed effectively but the bounces didn't cooperate.
The game turned at 00:26 of overtime, when Ryan Strome's snap shot from the slot ended it. One shot. One outcome. One result that defied the underlying numbers.
