The Mammoth won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Mammoth defeated the Kings 4–3 in overtime, surviving a game where the underlying metrics suggested a dead heat. Expected goals split 4.33–4.33, a perfectly even split—yet the Kings scored just three.
K. Vejmelka's brilliance made the difference. The Mammoth netminder saved 1.33 goals above expected, posting a 0.917 SV% on 33 of 36 shots. On high-danger chances specifically, he was perfect: 100% on 8 shots. D. Kuemper, meanwhile, allowed a 0.882 SV% (30/34) for the Kings—the Kings' underperformance (−1.33 xG) was almost entirely chance variance, not volume.
The Mammoth held 49% of shot attempts (34–36 on goal) and 9–8 in high-danger chances—marginal edges that wouldn't explain an overtime win. But the Kings' execution abandoned them when it mattered: 0 for 8 on high-danger chances. The Mammoth found their edge on the rush, converting 2 of 24 chances. The Kings also converted 2 rushes—on 29 attempts—a statistical tie that masked a timing problem.
N. Schmaltz ended it at 01:46 of overtime with a snap shot from a sharp angle, the final blow to a Kings team that had created opportunities but couldn't convert them into goals.