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Motion-blurred skater in a Ottawa Senators sweater
← Mon, Mar 23 · the slate
Breakdown · OTT at NYR

Senators run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalMon, Mar 23
OTTOttawa Senators2NYRNew York Rangers1
The verdict · earned

The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

OTT 2 · NYR 1
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:32 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Senators' 67% expected-goal advantage (3.46–1.70) should have delivered a blowout, but they won just 2–1. The 1.46-goal shortfall came down to I. Shesterkin, who stopped 1.46 goals above expected.

The Senators outshot the Rangers 33–10 and had superior shot quality (0.069 xG per attempt versus 0.046), yet couldn't finish. They went 0 for 6 on high-danger chances while Shesterkin stood at 100% SV on those attempts. J. Reimer was sharp (0.900 SV%, +0.70 vs expected).

The Senators converted where it mattered: the rush. They scored twice on 29 chances. Conor Sheary's wrist shot from the doorstep (P3, 07:03) proved the difference.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 23
OTT
2
NYR
1

Senators run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 3.5 – 1.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Senators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
OTT
3.46
NYR
1.70
67% of the chances33%

The board read OTT 2, NYR 1. The chances read OTT 3.5, NYR 1.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
OTT
−1.5
goals above expected
OTT3.46 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
NYR1.70 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:30OTTS. PintoPP1–0
  2. P2 06:46OTTW. Foegele2–0
  3. P3 07:03NYRC. Sheary2–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
OTT
42 shots
2
Final
67 shots
NYR
25 shots
1
OTT attackNYR attack
OTT NYR Goal
42
shots · 2 in
25
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
OTTNYR
0 / 6
1.40 xG
High danger
1 / 1
0.24 xG
2 / 13
1.41 xG
Medium
0 / 11
1.08 xG
0 / 31
0.65 xG
Low
0 / 25
0.38 xG

High-danger looks: OTT 0 of 6, NYR 1 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
I. Shesterkin
+1.5
NYR · 31/33
B
J. Reimer
+0.7
OTT · 9/10
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Senators run the Rangers off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 13–3
  1. 06:30OTTS. Pintopower play(C. Giroux, J. Spence)1–0
2ndshots 13–2
  1. 06:46OTTW. Foegele(L. Eller)2–0
3rdshots 7–5
  1. 07:03NYRC. Sheary(T. Kartye, M. Robertson)2–1

score reads OTT–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.46
OTT chances
Goals their shots were worth
−1.5
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.013
OTT puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
57.5%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.46Expected goals1.70
OTT 67% of the chance quality
33Shots on goal10
6High-danger chances1
50All attempts (Corsi)37
Adjusted for score: OTT 53% · NYR 47%
Faceoffs · NYR won67%off62%neu60%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
OTT0 / 6 · 1.40 xG
NYR1 / 1 · 0.24 xG
Medium dangermid-range
OTT2 / 13 · 1.41 xG
NYR0 / 11 · 1.08 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
OTT0 / 31 · 0.65 xG
NYR0 / 25 · 0.38 xG

OTT went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.40 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
OTT
2 G · 3.46 xG · -1.5
NYR
1 G · 1.70 xG · -0.7
01234

OTT finished -1.5 against expected, NYR -0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
OTT
WRIST1/21
SNAP1/8
SLAP0/8
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND0/2
DEFLECTED0/1
POKE0/0
OTHER0/8
NYR
WRIST1/11
SNAP0/3
SLAP0/3
TIP IN0/6
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
POKE0/1
OTHER0/12
OTT
NYR
Off the rush
2 G on 29
2.49 xG
1 G on 14
1.31 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.83 xG
0 G on 1
0.08 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: OTT went 1-for-21, NYR 1-for-11. OTT scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Reimer
OTT · 9/10 · .900
+0.7
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/10.2-0.8
Medium0/111.1+1.1
Low0/250.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

I. Shesterkin
NYR · 31/33 · .939
+1.5
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/61.4+1.4
Medium2/131.4-0.6
Low0/310.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

67 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
OTT
42 shots
2
Final
67 shots
NYR
25 shots
1
OTT attackNYR attack
OTT NYR Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — OTT left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Spence
#10 · D · OTT
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 26:44 on ice · -1
M. Robertson
#29 · D · NYR
0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 18:41 on ice
S. Pinto
#12 · C · OTT
1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 16:39 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Mar 23
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 8:30 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.3 game with the Senators at 54% win probability — as close to a pick'em as the numbers offer.

Ottawa controls the underlying play. The Senators dominate 5v5 expected goals at 56.0% to 48.0%, and push territory at 53.0% Corsi. This should matter. The complication is shot luck: Ottawa's PDO sits at 0.993 while New York sits at 1.009. The Senators are running cold on quality, the Rangers hot. Regression favors Ottawa eventually. In one game, it cuts both ways.

Then there's the goaltending. D. Garand faces the Rangers on a back-to-back. Watch for a backup start or a tired starter — either scenario introduces variance.

Brady Tkachuk leads Ottawa's offense at 1.19 xG/60 with 11 goals and 20 assists, backed by 2 hard-on-goals and 7.5% shooting that will regress. Dylan Cozens complements him at 1.00 xG/60 with 13 goals, 15 assists, 1 hard-on-goal, and 9.5% shooting — similarly positioned to climb.

The Rangers counter with Adam Sykora at 0.91 xG/60 on just 3 goals and 1 assist, but at an unsustainable 20.0% shooting rate. Gabe Perreault carries 0.79 xG/60 with 8 goals and 11 assists, 2 hard-on-goals, and 13.1% shooting — also inflated.

Both teams sit at 0% hard-on-goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate. Nick Jensen is Ottawa's defensive weak link; Vincent Iorio is New York's.

Ottawa has the superior underlying play. But Garand's back-to-back and New York's hot hands inject enough uncertainty to make this a genuine toss-up.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 54%
54%
OTT
Model favorite
54%
46%
OTT50NYR

OTT by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 2.5–2.3 NYR; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →NYR
56.0%48.0%
53.0%49.0%
2.662.26
2.122.40
2.181.88
1.991.90
0.9931.009

OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.009) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
7-2-1
+12 GD · 2d rest
NYR
5-4-1
+4 GD · 1d rest
0.993
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.009
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • D. Garand is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
OTT
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
2 days rest.857 last start
Backup Linus Ullmark · -12.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR
Expected in goal
D. Garand
back-to-back.946 last start
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT
Brady Tkachuk11G 20A
1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh
Dylan Cozens13G 15A
1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh
NYR
Adam Sykora3G 1A
0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh
Gabe Perreault8G 11A
0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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