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← Sat, Mar 28 · the slate
Breakdown · MIN at BOS

Bruins pull away from the Wild

FinalSat, Mar 28
MINMinnesota Wild3BOSBoston Bruins6
The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.12–3.79 and won anyway.

MIN 3 · BOS 6
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:33 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Boston's 6-3 win masks Minnesota's dominance. The Wild generated 5.12 expected goals to the Bruins' 3.79 and commanded the high-danger area 10 to 5. They lost anyway—decided by goaltending and Boston's superior finishing.

J. Swayman was decisive. He stopped 2.1 goals above expectation, converting marginal looks into saves. F. Gustavsson faced comparable volume and surrendered 1.2 goals above expectation—competent work that wasn't enough against Boston's precision. One goalie excellent, one adequate: the scoreboard follows.

Boston's high-danger finishing was clinical: 2 goals on 5 chances (40%). Minnesota's was futile: 0 on 10. The Wild won't repeat that. On the rush, Boston scored 5 of 32; Minnesota scored 2 of 31—a difference too thin to decide a game this imbalanced. Elias Lindholm's wrist shot from the top of the circles in the third period marked a turning point.

Shot attempts slightly favored Boston (31–34 on goal, 48%), a detail eclipsed by expected goals. Boston overperformed by 2.21; Minnesota underperformed by 2.12. The Bruins converted decisively and the Wild wasted their chances. That's the game.

Three Stars

  • #11 C. Mittelstadt (BOS) — 3 assists in 14:01
  • #43 Q. Hughes (MIN) — 2 assists in 31:03
  • #88 D. Pastrnak (BOS) — 2 assists in 20:48
The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 28
MIN
3
BOS
6

Bruins pull away from the Wild

Chances 5.1 – 3.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Wild deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
MIN
5.12
BOS
3.79
57% of the chances43%

The board read MIN 3, BOS 6. The chances read MIN 5.1, BOS 3.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
+2.2
goals above expected
BOS3.79 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
MIN5.12 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Bruins scored 2.2 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:01BOSA. Peeke0–1
  2. P1 14:00BOSP. Zacha0–2
  3. P2 10:27BOSV. Arvidsson0–3
  4. P2 14:46MINK. Kaprizov1–3
  5. P3 03:48BOSE. Lindholm1–4
  6. P3 07:57MINM. ZuccarelloPP2–4
  7. P3 13:44MINR. Hartman3–4
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MIN
60 shots
3
Final
113 shots
BOS
53 shots
6
MIN attackBOS attack
MIN BOS Goal
60
shots · 3 in
53
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MINBOS
0 / 10
2.33 xG
High danger
2 / 5
1.51 xG
3 / 20
2.13 xG
Medium
3 / 14
1.54 xG
0 / 54
0.66 xG
Low
1 / 47
0.73 xG

The Wild went 0 for 10 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Swayman
+2.1
BOS · 31/34
D-
F. Gustavsson
−1.2
MIN · 25/30
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins pull away from the Wild

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 12–9
  1. 01:01BOSA. Peeke(D. Pastrnak, F. Minten)0–1
  2. 14:00BOSP. Zacha(V. Arvidsson, C. Mittelstadt)0–2
2ndshots 13–12
  1. 10:27BOSV. Arvidsson(D. Pastrnak, H. Lindholm)0–3
  2. 14:46MINK. Kaprizov(R. Hartman, B. Faber)1–3
3rdshots 9–10
  1. 03:48BOSE. Lindholm(L. Reichel, H. Lindholm)1–4
  2. 07:57MINM. Zuccarellopower play(Q. Hughes)2–4
  3. 13:44MINR. Hartman(Q. Hughes, M. Zuccarello)3–4
  4. 16:50BOSP. Zacha(C. Mittelstadt)3–5
  5. 19:26BOSE. Lindholmempty net(C. Mittelstadt)3–6

score reads MIN–BOS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.79
BOS chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.2
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.055
BOS puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
44.0%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.12Expected goals3.79
MIN 57% of the chance quality
34Shots on goal31
10High-danger chances5
84All attempts (Corsi)66
Adjusted for score: MIN 63% · BOS 37%
Faceoffs · BOS won62%off44%neu71%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
MIN0 / 10 · 2.33 xG
BOS2 / 5 · 1.51 xG
Medium dangermid-range
MIN3 / 20 · 2.13 xG
BOS3 / 14 · 1.54 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
MIN0 / 54 · 0.66 xG
BOS1 / 47 · 0.73 xG

MIN went 0-for-10 from high danger on 2.33 expected goals — 2.3 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
MIN
3 G · 5.12 xG · -2.1
BOS
6 G · 3.79 xG · +2.2
01234567

MIN finished -2.1 against expected, BOS +2.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
MIN
WRIST2/40
SNAP0/4
TIP IN0/7
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
POKE0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT1/1
OTHER0/24
BOS
WRIST3/33
SNAP2/7
TIP IN1/3
SLAP0/5
BACKHAND0/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
POKE0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/0
OTHER0/13
MIN
BOS
Off the rush
2 G on 31
2.83 xG
5 G on 32
2.66 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 6
1.00 xG
1 G on 3
0.26 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: MIN went 2-for-40, BOS 3-for-33. BOS scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
F. Gustavsson
MIN · 25/30 · .833
-1.2
saved above expected
D-
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/51.5-0.5
Medium3/141.5-1.5
Low1/470.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Swayman
BOS · 31/34 · .912
+2.1
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/102.3+2.3
Medium3/202.1-0.9
Low0/540.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

113 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
MIN
60 shots
3
Final
113 shots
BOS
53 shots
6
MIN attackBOS attack
MIN BOS Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
C. Mittelstadt
#11 · C · BOS
0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 14:01 on ice · +4
Q. Hughes
#43 · D · MIN
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 31:03 on ice · -3
D. Pastrnak
#88 · R · BOS
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 20:48 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Mar 28
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:14 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a MIN 2.6–2.5 BOS game with the Wild at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Minnesota owns the underlying play. At 5v5, the Wild generated 52.0% expected goals against the Bruins' 47.0%, suggesting they're outworking Boston even if the scoreboard hasn't reflected it yet. Boston's shot attempts narrow the gap slightly—MIN at 48.0% Corsi to BOS at 49.0%—indicating the Bruins have tightened their defensive structure, but Minnesota still controls the quality of chances.

The Bruins' path to an upset runs through regression. Boston is running a PDO of 1.023, among the league's hottest, while Minnesota sits at 1.007. That gap is unlikely to hold. Regression favors Minnesota if this matchup runs close.

Matt Boldy is Minnesota's highest-leverage player. He's posting 0.89 expected goals per 60 minutes, backed by 22 goals and 18 assists this season, with five high-danger chances and a 13.7% shooting rate that suggests his touch remains elite. Robby Fabbri, whose 0.88 xG/60 tracks Boldy's rate, will likely miss this game. If Fabbri returns, Minnesota's scoring depth improves immediately.

Boston counters with Viktor Arvidsson, who has tilted the ice more than any Bruin. His 1.04 xG/60 leads the group, and he's converting at a 13.0% clip on 18 goals and 24 assists. The catch: he's shooting more but generating fewer high-danger chances—just two compared to Boldy's five. Tanner Jeannot, at 0.75 xG/60 and 6 goals with 14 assists, rounds out Boston's scoring: functional but not game-breaking.

Defensively, Minnesota should monitor Matt Kiersted as a weak link. Boston has a similar liability in Elias Lindholm. Neither team has generated high-danger or rebound goals at measurable rates—a constraint that likely shifts if this reaches a playoff-caliber intensity.

At 52% win probability, Minnesota holds the underlying edge, but Boston's PDO cushion makes this a genuine toss-up. When the models are this close, execution matters more than projection.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 52%
52%
MIN
Model favorite
52%
48%
MIN50BOS

MIN by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 2.6–2.5 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →BOS
52.0%47.0%
48.0%49.0%
2.552.39
2.402.67
2.042.22
1.931.82
1.0071.023

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.007 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
4-4-2
-2 GD · 2d rest
BOS
5-2-3
+3 GD · 3d rest
1.007
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.023
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
Regression watch
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
  • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
MIN
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
2 days rest.900 last start
Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BOS
Expected in goal
J. Korpisalo
3 days rest.880 last start
Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN
Matt Boldy22G 18A
0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
Robby Fabbri2G 3A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
BOS
Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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