The Oilers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Edmonton dominated shot quality despite near-parity in volume. The Oilers won 4–2 behind a 58–42 expected goals edge (5.13 to 3.74) despite outshooting Anaheim just 34 to 33. The separation lay in shot danger: Oilers generated 9 high-danger chances to the Ducks' 5, and their shots carried substantially greater threat (0.081 xG per shot vs. 0.055).
Edmonton was lethal on the rush, scoring 3 goals across 33 rush attempts. They crashed the net hard too, creating 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — the right play even without the finish.
On the other end, both goaltenders played well above expectation. Anaheim's L. Dostal stopped 30 of 33 shots (0.909 SV%) and saved 2.13 goals above expected. Edmonton's C. Ingram made 31 saves (0.939 SV%) and saved 1.74 goals above expected. Dostal kept the Ducks competitive despite Edmonton's shot quality advantage.
The pattern: Anaheim generated chances but couldn't convert. They underperformed their 3.74 xG by 1.74 — wasted quality looks that better teams finish. Edmonton underperformed theirs by 1.13 — a smaller gap that still left them 4 goals ahead. When shot quality diverges this sharply, volume becomes noise.
