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Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater
← Sat, Mar 28 · the slate
Breakdown · FLA at NYI

Islanders run the Panthers off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Mar 28
FLAFlorida Panthers2NYINew York Islanders5
The verdict · earned

The Islanders earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

FLA 2 · NYI 5
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:13 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders beat the Panthers 5-2, but the scoreline understates the gap. New York controlled 71% of expected goals at 5v5 (7.32–2.97)—a dominance the final tally barely hints at. The shot-attempt margin (40–21, 66%) reinforced it.

The Islanders generated far more dangerous chances: 13–5 in high-danger attempts. They shot at 0.098 expected goals per attempt to Florida's 0.049. The Panthers couldn't finish: 0 for 5 on high-danger attempts.

New York had 7.32 expected goals but scored just 5. D. Tarasov (35/40, 0.875 SV%) was why, saving 2.32 above expected. I. Sorokin (19/21, 0.905 SV%) was also sharp, at +0.97.

Off the rush, the Islanders scored 3 times on 31 attempts; Florida managed 2 on 26. New York also converted three low-danger opportunities—the kind of variance that doesn't survive the playoffs.

B. Schenn (1G, 2A) and M. Schaefer (2A in 27:51) drove the offense. M. Tkachuk (2G) carried Florida, but one player can't outrun a dominated team.

The underlying numbers promised a blowout. A 5-2 score just looks tighter than the hockey was.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 28
FLA
2
NYI
5

Islanders run the Panthers off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 3.0 – 7.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Islanders earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
FLA
2.97
NYI
7.32
29% of the chances71%

The board read FLA 2, NYI 5. The chances read FLA 3.0, NYI 7.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NYI
−2.3
goals above expected
NYI7.32 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
FLA2.97 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 08:06FLAM. Tkachuk1–0
  2. P1 14:03FLAM. Tkachuk2–0
  3. P2 05:28NYIM. Gatcomb2–1
  4. P2 12:09NYIB. Schenn2–2
  5. P2 14:52NYIS. HolmstromPP2–3
  6. P2 17:00NYIE. Heineman2–4
  7. P2 17:57NYIC. Cizikas2–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
FLA
42 shots
2
Final
104 shots
NYI
62 shots
5
FLA attackNYI attack
FLA NYI Goal
42
shots · 2 in
62
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
FLANYI
0 / 5
1.07 xG
High danger
1 / 13
4.61 xG
2 / 10
1.14 xG
Medium
1 / 19
1.85 xG
0 / 45
0.75 xG
Low
3 / 43
0.86 xG

The Panthers went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
D. Tarasov
+2.3
FLA · 35/40
B+
I. Sorokin
+1.0
NYI · 19/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Islanders run the Panthers off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–8
  1. 08:06FLAM. Tkachuk(S. Jones)1–0
  2. 14:03FLAM. Tkachuk2–0
2ndshots 5–24
  1. 05:28NYIM. Gatcomb(A. Pelech, S. Mayfield)2–1
  2. 12:09NYIB. Schenn(C. Ritchie, M. Schaefer)2–2
  3. 14:52NYIS. Holmstrompower play(M. Schaefer, B. Schenn)2–3
  4. 17:00NYIE. Heineman(A. Lee, B. Schenn)2–4
  5. 17:57NYIC. Cizikas(C. Soucy, M. Gatcomb)2–5
3rdshots 8–8no goals

    score reads FLA–NYI

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    7.32
    NYI chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −2.3
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.033
    NYI puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    55.6%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.97Expected goals7.32
    NYI 71% of the chance quality
    21Shots on goal40
    5High-danger chances13
    60All attempts (Corsi)75
    Adjusted for score: FLA 46% · NYI 54%
    Faceoffs · NYI won71%off67%neu57%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    FLA0 / 5 · 1.07 xG
    NYI1 / 13 · 4.61 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    FLA2 / 10 · 1.14 xG
    NYI1 / 19 · 1.85 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    FLA0 / 45 · 0.75 xG
    NYI3 / 43 · 0.86 xG

    NYI went 1-for-13 from high danger on 4.61 expected goals — 3.6 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    FLA
    2 G · 2.97 xG · -1.0
    NYI
    5 G · 7.32 xG · -2.3
    012345678

    FLA finished -1.0 against expected, NYI -2.3.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    FLA
    SNAP0/11
    WRIST0/12
    SLAP0/10
    BACKHAND1/3
    TIP IN0/3
    DEFLECTED0/1
    BETWEEN LEGS1/1
    POKE0/1
    BAT0/0
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/18
    NYI
    SNAP3/32
    WRIST2/11
    SLAP0/4
    BACKHAND0/8
    TIP IN0/5
    DEFLECTED0/0
    BETWEEN LEGS0/0
    POKE0/0
    BAT0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/13
    FLA
    NYI
    Off the rush
    2 G on 26
    2.33 xG
    3 G on 31
    2.82 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.29 xG
    1 G on 7
    1.31 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: FLA went 0-for-11, NYI 3-for-32. NYI scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    D. Tarasov
    FLA · 35/40 · .875
    +2.3
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/134.6+3.6
    Medium1/191.9+0.8
    Low3/430.9-2.1

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    I. Sorokin
    NYI · 19/21 · .905
    +1.0
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.1+1.1
    Medium2/101.1-0.9
    Low0/450.8+0.8

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    104 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    FLA
    42 shots
    2
    Final
    104 shots
    NYI
    62 shots
    5
    FLA attackNYI attack
    FLA NYI Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    B. Schenn
    #10 · C · NYI
    1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 19:22 on ice · +1
    M. Schaefer
    #48 · D · NYI
    0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 27:51 on ice · +3
    M. Tkachuk
    #19 · L · FLA
    2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 23:43 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Mar 28
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:33 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.6–2.6 game with the Islanders at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

    Neither team holds a decisive advantage at even strength. Florida's 52.0% Corsi suggests territorial dominance, but this evaporates in shot quality—the Panthers sit at 49.0% xG%, nearly even with New York's 48.0%. The Islanders' 0.993 PDO runs above league average; Florida's 0.989 suggests the reverse. In a tight game, small deviations compound.

    The Panthers' puck possession edge means more time in the offensive zone, but generating chances and capitalizing on them are different skills. Sam Bennett (0.97 xG/60, 18G 19A, 6 HD goals) and Brad Marchand (0.93 xG/60, 17G 9A, 3 HD goals, 19.5% shooting) anchor Florida's scoring. Marchand hasn't played in 22 days and is likely unavailable, removing a 19.5% shooter—significant in a one-goal game.

    New York counters with Anders Lee (1.20 xG/60, 9G 20A, 2 HD goals, 6.4% shooting) and Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60, 18G 10A, 3 HD goals, 12.8% shooting). Lee generates chances at elite volume but converts at a pedestrian 6.4%, while Horvat sits closer to the mean—more predictable, less volatile.

    Defensively, Brad Marchand is a weak link for Florida; Alexander Romanov fills the same role for the Islanders. In a game this tight, these liabilities matter.

    The zero-HD-goal rates reported for both teams likely reflect data limitations rather than actual play, so that metric carries minimal predictive weight.

    In a game where possession favors Florida and special-teams luck could swing either direction, the Islanders' 51% edge likely reflects home-ice advantage and slightly elevated conversion rates. With Marchand sidelined and both teams executing at nearly identical rates, don't expect a blowout. This is a genuine toss-up.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    NYI 51%
    51%
    NYI
    Model favorite
    49%
    51%
    FLA50NYI

    NYI by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score FLA 2.6–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    FLA← edge
    edge →NYI
    49.0%48.0%
    52.0%49.0%
    2.482.48
    2.562.69
    1.981.78
    2.211.94
    0.9890.993

    FLA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 0.993) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    FLA
    5-5-0
    -4 GD · 2d rest
    NYI
    6-4-0
    +0 GD · 2d rest
    0.989
    FLA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.993
    NYI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Things to watch
    • The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    FLA
    Expected in goal
    D. Tarasov
    2 days rest.940 last start
    Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NYI
    Expected in goal
    I. Sorokin
    2 days rest.963 last start
    Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    FLA
    Sam Bennett18G 19A
    0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh
    Brad Marchand17G 9A
    0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh
    NYI
    Anders Lee9G 20A
    1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
    Bo Horvat18G 10A
    0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page