The Canadiens stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.81–4.90 and won anyway.
Montreal stole this one. The Canadiens beat Carolina 3-1 despite getting dominated in nearly every underlying metric—the Hurricanes controlled 56% of expected goals at 5v5, 66% of shot attempts, and created 5 high-danger chances to Montreal's 7. This was robbery.
The difference was goaltending. J. Dobes played like a wall: 34/35 saves at 0.971 SV%, stopping 3.90 goals above expected. That's not a solid outing—that's a heist. F. Andersen faced better chances but left 0.81 goals on the table with 15/18 stops.
Carolina's actual problem wasn't volume; it was efficiency. The Hurricanes created plenty but converted nothing—0 for 5 on high-danger chances, a conversion rate that won't hold. Meanwhile, Montreal's shots were cleaner. The Canadiens generated 0.091 expected goals per shot; Carolina managed only 0.049. Quality mattered more than quantity.
Nick Suzuki's wrist shot from the doorstep in the second period (19:53) was the turning point—Montreal's chance at the right time against the wrong goalie.
This game defined itself by who got lucky and who got punished. The Hurricanes dominated, outshot Montreal 35–18, and still lost. Carolina's rush defense collapsed (Montreal scored 2 goals on 20 rush chances), and the rebound battle went nowhere (7 rebound opportunities created, 0 converted). Montreal scored on its opportunities: Suzuki had 2, Cole Caufield 1, and Lane Hutson orchestrated the offense with 2 assists.
The xG gap (4.90–3.81, 56–44% split) says Carolina should've won. The scoreboard says Montreal did. Dobes made sure one story overruled the other.
