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← Sun, Mar 29 · the slate
Breakdown · BOS at CBJ

Bruins run the Blue Jackets off the ice on the underlying numbers

Final / OTSun, Mar 29
BOSBoston Bruins4CBJColumbus Blue Jackets3
The verdict · earned

The Bruins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

BOS 4 · CBJ 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:36 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins won 4-3 in a shootout, but the underlying metrics suggest they could have won more decisively. They controlled 70% of expected goals (6.03–2.62), yet two dynamics kept the game closer than the data warranted. J. Greaves (CBJ) was exceptional, saving 3.03 goals above expected on 36 saves. Boston underperformed its xG by 2.03 goals despite generating the superior chances.

Columbus managed 39% of shot attempts at 5v5, which constrained their offensive ceiling. Boston had 14 high-danger chances compared to the Blue Jackets' 2—a quality gap that essentially decided the outcome. The Bruins also owned a shot quality edge: 0.071 xG per shot versus 0.053, which compounded their volume advantage.

Three players drove the result. P. Zacha (BOS) scored twice with an assist in 18:07. V. Arvidsson (BOS) collected three assists in 15:14. C. McAvoy (BOS) added a goal and assist while logging 26:09.

Columbus found one reliable outlet: the rush. The Blue Jackets converted 3 of 23 rush chances, an efficient rate. Boston relied less on transition—2 goals on 37 rush attempts—but the Bruins won the 5v5 battle that determined the game.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Mar 29
BOS
4
CBJ
3

Bruins run the Blue Jackets off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 6.0 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Bruins earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
6.03
CBJ
2.62
70% of the chances30%

The board read BOS 4, CBJ 3. The chances read BOS 6.0, CBJ 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
−2.0
goals above expected
BOS6.03 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ2.62 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:17CBJB. Jenner0–1
  2. P1 07:45CBJM. Marchment0–2
  3. P1 19:32CBJC. CoylePP0–3
  4. P3 06:29BOSC. McAvoy1–3
  5. P3 08:43BOSP. ZachaPP2–3
  6. P3 19:49BOSP. ZachaPP3–3
  7. SO 00:00BOSF. MintenPP3–3
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
60 shots
5
Final
97 shots
CBJ
37 shots
4
BOS attackCBJ attack
BOS CBJ Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

60
shots · 5 in
37
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSCBJ
1 / 14
3.60 xG
High danger
0 / 2
0.47 xG
1 / 15
1.68 xG
Medium
3 / 16
1.75 xG
1 / 56
0.75 xG
Low
0 / 31
0.40 xG

High-danger looks: BOS 1 of 14, CBJ 0 of 2.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Greaves
+3.0
CBJ · 36/39
D
J. Swayman
−0.4
BOS · 22/25
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins run the Blue Jackets off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–13
  1. 06:17CBJB. Jenner(C. Garland)0–1
  2. 07:45CBJM. Marchment(I. Provorov, K. Marchenko)0–2
  3. 19:32CBJC. Coylepower play(K. Marchenko, M. Marchment)0–3
2ndshots 13–5no goals
    3rdshots 12–5
    1. 06:29BOSC. McAvoy(P. Zacha, V. Arvidsson)1–3
    2. 08:43BOSP. Zachapower play(C. McAvoy, V. Arvidsson)2–3
    3. 19:49BOSP. Zachapower play(V. Arvidsson)3–3
    OTshots 6–2no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00BOSF. Mintenpower play3–3
      2. 00:00CBJC. Coylepower play3–3
      3. 00:00BOSV. Arvidssonpower play3–3

      score reads BOS–CBJ

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      6.03
      BOS chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −2.0
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      0.974
      BOS puck luck
      Below 1.000 — the bounces went against them
      63.4%
      Shot attempts
      Over half — they had the puck more
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      6.03Expected goals2.62
      BOS 70% of the chance quality
      39Shots on goal25
      14High-danger chances2
      85All attempts (Corsi)49
      Adjusted for score: BOS 69% · CBJ 32%
      Faceoffs · CBJ won44%off36%neu55%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      BOS1 / 14 · 3.60 xG
      CBJ0 / 2 · 0.47 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      BOS1 / 15 · 1.68 xG
      CBJ3 / 16 · 1.75 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      BOS1 / 56 · 0.75 xG
      CBJ0 / 31 · 0.40 xG

      BOS went 1-for-14 from high danger on 3.60 expected goals — 2.6 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      BOS
      4 G · 6.03 xG · -2.0
      CBJ
      3 G · 2.62 xG · +0.4
      01234567

      BOS finished -2.0 against expected, CBJ +0.4.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      BOS
      SNAP1/26
      WRIST1/15
      SLAP0/8
      TIP IN1/4
      BACKHAND0/1
      DEFLECTED0/2
      WRAP AROUND0/1
      OTHER0/28
      CBJ
      SNAP2/15
      WRIST0/9
      SLAP0/3
      TIP IN1/5
      BACKHAND0/2
      DEFLECTED0/0
      WRAP AROUND0/0
      OTHER0/15
      BOS
      CBJ
      Off the rush
      2 G on 37
      4.23 xG
      3 G on 23
      2.05 xG
      Off rebounds
      0 G on 3
      0.43 xG
      0 G on 2
      0.38 xG

      Snap shots carried the volume: BOS went 1-for-26, CBJ 2-for-15. CBJ scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Swayman
      BOS · 22/25 · .880
      -0.4
      saved above expected
      D
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/20.5+0.5
      Medium3/161.8-1.3
      Low0/310.4+0.4

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      J. Greaves
      CBJ · 36/39 · .923
      +3.0
      saved above expected
      A+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger1/143.6+2.6
      Medium1/151.7+0.7
      Low1/560.8-0.3

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      97 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      BOS
      60 shots
      5
      Final
      97 shots
      CBJ
      37 shots
      4
      BOS attackCBJ attack
      BOS CBJ Goal

      Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

      Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      P. Zacha
      #18 · C · BOS
      2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 18:07 on ice · +1
      V. Arvidsson
      #71 · L · BOS
      0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 15:14 on ice · +1
      C. McAvoy
      #73 · D · BOS
      1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 26:09 on ice · +1
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Sun, Mar 29
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:26 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The model projects Boston to outscore Columbus by 2.4–2.8 goals on average, yet hands the Blue Jackets 56% win probability in a single game—a gap rooted in regression. Columbus controls underlying play: 52.0% expected goals share versus Boston's 47.0%, with a matching Corsi advantage (51.0% to 49.0%). The Bruins' edge comes from unsustainable finishing. Their 1.023 PDO far exceeds what shot quality should produce, and that gap unwinds in short sample.

      Boston's scoring leaders run hot. Viktor Arvidsson carries 18G on 1.04 xG/60 while shooting 13.0%—both well above expectation. Tanner Jeannot shows 6G on 0.75 xG/60 at 8.3% shooting. Columbus counters with Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 9.6% shooting) and Mathieu Olivier (12G, 0.89 xG/60, 13.3% shooting), whose rates suggest more sustainable output.

      Goaltending introduces uncertainty. Both E. Merzlikins and J. Swayman work back-to-backs, creating relief-start risk.

      The Blue Jackets own the edge. Their underlying play validates it. Boston's PDO unwinds.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      CBJ 56%
      56%
      CBJ
      Model favorite
      44%
      56%
      BOS50CBJ

      CBJ by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.4–2.8 CBJ; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      BOS← edge
      edge →CBJ
      47.0%52.0%
      49.0%51.0%
      2.392.63
      2.672.43
      2.222.12
      1.821.98
      1.0231.003

      CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.023 vs 1.003) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      BOS
      6-2-2
      +7 GD · 1d rest
      CBJ
      6-3-1
      +11 GD · 1d rest
      1.023
      BOS PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      1.003
      CBJ PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Where the edges live
      • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
      Regression watch
      • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Things to watch
      • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
      • E. Merzlikins is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
      • J. Swayman is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
      • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      BOS
      Expected in goal
      J. Swayman
      back-to-back.912 last start
      Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season
      Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      CBJ
      Expected in goal
      E. Merzlikins
      back-to-back.917 last start
      Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season
      Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      BOS
      Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
      1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
      Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
      0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
      CBJ
      Boone Jenner11G 21A
      0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
      Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
      0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page