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Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater
← Mon, Mar 30 · the slate
Breakdown · VAN at VGK

Golden Knights run the Canucks off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalMon, Mar 30
VANVancouver Canucks2VGKVegas Golden Knights4
The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

VAN 2 · VGK 4
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:00 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

K. Lankinen stopped 1.54 goals above expected. His team lost anyway. Vegas's dominance was complete: 67% of 5v5 expected goals (4.54–2.25), 59% of shot attempts (34–24 on goal), and 9–3 in high-danger chances. The 4-2 final was inevitable.

Vancouver never generated enough offense to compete. Vegas was efficient off the rush—3 goals on 30 chances. Vancouver scored 2 on 19. Cole Smith's backhander from the wing (P3, 18:50) was the turning point.

K. Lankinen made 30 of 33 saves (0.909 SV%, +1.54 vs expected) and kept the margin close. A. Hill (0.917 SV%) had an easier night. F. Hronek led with 1A in 28:00. #27 S. Theodore (1G, 22:35) and #3 B. McNabb (1A, 21:38) drove Vegas's advantage.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Mar 30
VAN
2
VGK
4

Golden Knights run the Canucks off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.3 – 4.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
VAN
2.25
VGK
4.54
33% of the chances67%

The board read VAN 2, VGK 4. The chances read VAN 2.3, VGK 4.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
VGK
−0.5
goals above expected
VGK4.54 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
VAN2.25 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 12:19VANE. Kane1–0
  2. P2 07:48VGKR. Andersson1–1
  3. P2 12:17VANB. BoeserPP2–1
  4. P2 17:17VGKS. Theodore2–2
  5. P2 18:34VGKR. Smith2–3
  6. P3 18:50VGKC. SmithEN2–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VAN
28 shots
2
Final
75 shots
VGK
47 shots
4
VAN attackVGK attack
VAN VGK Goal
28
shots · 2 in
47
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VANVGK
1 / 3
0.68 xG
High danger
3 / 9
2.22 xG
1 / 12
1.23 xG
Medium
1 / 19
1.91 xG
0 / 18
0.34 xG
Low
0 / 39
0.41 xG

The Golden Knights buried 3 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
K. Lankinen
+1.5
VAN · 30/33
B
A. Hill
+0.3
VGK · 22/24
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Golden Knights run the Canucks off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–10
  1. 12:19VANE. Kane(J. DeBrusk)1–0
2ndshots 10–15
  1. 07:48VGKR. Andersson(T. Hertl, N. Hanifin)1–1
  2. 12:17VANB. Boeserpower play(F. Hronek, E. Pettersson)2–1
  3. 17:17VGKS. Theodore(I. Barbashev, M. Stone)2–2
  4. 18:34VGKR. Smith(B. McNabb)2–3
3rdshots 7–9
  1. 18:50VGKC. Smithempty net(J. Lauzon, N. Dowd)2–4

score reads VAN–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.54
VGK chances
Goals their shots were worth
−0.5
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
0.999
VGK puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
67.0%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.25Expected goals4.54
VGK 67% of the chance quality
24Shots on goal34
3High-danger chances9
33All attempts (Corsi)67
Adjusted for score: VAN 33% · VGK 67%
Faceoffs · VGK won63%off56%neu32%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
VAN1 / 3 · 0.68 xG
VGK3 / 9 · 2.22 xG
Medium dangermid-range
VAN1 / 12 · 1.23 xG
VGK1 / 19 · 1.91 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
VAN0 / 18 · 0.34 xG
VGK0 / 39 · 0.41 xG

VGK went 1-for-19 from medium danger on 1.91 expected goals — 0.9 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
VAN
2 G · 2.25 xG · -0.3
VGK
4 G · 4.54 xG · -0.5
012345

VAN finished -0.3 against expected, VGK -0.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
VAN
WRIST0/13
SNAP0/5
TIP IN1/4
BACKHAND1/3
SLAP0/2
DEFLECTED0/1
BETWEEN LEGS0/0
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/5
VGK
WRIST2/28
SNAP1/6
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND1/3
SLAP0/4
DEFLECTED0/1
BETWEEN LEGS0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/20
VAN
VGK
Off the rush
2 G on 19
1.81 xG
3 G on 30
3.20 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.13 xG
0 G on 1
0.13 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VAN went 0-for-13, VGK 2-for-28. VGK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
K. Lankinen
VAN · 30/33 · .909
+1.5
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/92.2-0.8
Medium1/191.9+0.9
Low0/390.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Hill
VGK · 22/24 · .917
+0.3
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/30.7-0.3
Medium1/121.2+0.2
Low0/180.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

75 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
VAN
28 shots
2
Final
75 shots
VGK
47 shots
4
VAN attackVGK attack
VAN VGK Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — VAN left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
F. Hronek
#17 · D · VAN
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 28:00 on ice · -1
S. Theodore
#27 · D · VGK
1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 22:35 on ice · +2
B. McNabb
#3 · D · VGK
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:38 on ice · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Mar 30
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:36 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.8-2.2 Vegas victory with the Golden Knights at 61% win probability.

Vegas owns the underlying play. At 5v5, the Golden Knights generate xG at 54.0% to Vancouver's 44.0%—a 10-point spread that signals sustained territorial dominance. That same advantage appears in Corsi, where Vegas leads 52.0% to 46.0%, meaning more offensive looks per shot fired. Vancouver's recent form compounds this. At -18 goal differential over their last 10 games, they're bleeding chances; Vegas sits at -6. Directional edges that large persist.

Both teams are running cold in PDO—Vegas at 0.983, Vancouver at 0.974—which means both have room for positive regression. The key: Vegas is generating 54.0% xG%, so when variance corrects, they're far likelier to cash. Vancouver, at only 44.0% xG%, needs an unsustainable shooting bump to stay close.

The goaltending picture is clouded. A. Hill and K. Lankinen are both on back-to-backs, so expect either a backup start or a fatigued starter. Lineup announcements closer to puck drop will clarify.

Injuries tilt the scales further. Filip Chytil hasn't played in 56 days and is likely out—his 1.03 xG/60 was Vancouver's offensive spine. Drew O'Connor (0.85 xG/60, 13G 11A, 11.8% shooting) becomes the primary secondary threat. For Vegas, Brandon Saad is marked inactive, removing a 0.91 xG/60 forward from play. Tomas Hertl (0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 4.3% shooting) anchors the attack.

Victor Mancini is Vancouver's defensive weak point; Rasmus Andersson presents similar concerns for Vegas. Both teams have registered 0% HD goal rate and 0% rebound goal rate—a metric suspicious in its extremity, suggesting either elite positioning or vanishing sample size.

Players to Watch:

  • VAN: Drew O'Connor (13G, 11.8% shooting)
  • VGK: Tomas Hertl (5G, 4.3% shooting)
What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 61%
61%
VGK
Model favorite
39%
61%
VAN50VGK

VGK by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score VAN 2.2–2.8 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
VAN← edge
edge →VGK
44.0%54.0%
46.0%52.0%
2.222.52
2.812.11
1.602.12
2.562.10
0.9740.983

VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.974 vs 0.983) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
VAN
2-7-1
-18 GD · 1d rest
VGK
3-5-2
-6 GD · 1d rest
0.974
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.983
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 44.0%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Canucks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 44.0%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • A. Hill is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • K. Lankinen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Golden Knights are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Canucks are underwater at -18 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
VAN
Expected in goal
K. Lankinen
back-to-back.750 last start
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -19.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK
Expected in goal
A. Hill
back-to-back.818 last start
Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
VAN
Filip Chytil3G 0A
1.03 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
Drew O'Connor13G 11A
0.85 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.8% sh
VGK
Brandon Saad3G 6A
0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
Tomas Hertl5G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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