The Maple Leafs won 5–4 in overtime, despite expected goals suggesting they shouldn't have. The Ducks generated 4.68 xG to Toronto's 4.36—a small but real edge in the underlying play—yet left with nothing.

The divergence came down to high-danger efficiency and goaltending. The Ducks wasted eight high-danger chances, converting zero. Toronto converted 2 of 5 (40%). A. Stolarz stopped all eight high-danger shots he faced (0.875 save percentage overall, +0.68 xG), while V. Husso faltered at 0.828 and -0.64 xG.

The Ducks dominated the volume game. They held 52% of shot attempts (32–29 on goal) and were lethal off the rush, scoring three goals on 39 rush chances. Toronto countered with four rush goals on 32 attempts and a dominant power play: 2 PPG on 13 PP shots (1.14 xG).

John Tavares ended it at 04:55 of overtime with a tip-in, his second of the night. W. Nylander led the Leafs with three assists in 23:35 and one goal. J. LaCombe recorded two assists for the Ducks in 24:53.

The projection favors Anaheim. MoneyPuck's model puts the Ducks at 58% win probability in a matchup it expects to land 2.4–2.9 goals, a margin where underlying play becomes decisive.

The Ducks own the territorial advantage convincingly. Anaheim's 52.0% expected goals share and 52.0% Corsi at 5v5 indicate systematic control—they generate higher-quality chances and drive play in ways Toronto hasn't matched this season (46.0% xG, 45.0% Corsi). This structural edge plays out most nights.

But the Ducks are running colder than their numbers deserve. Their 0.981 PDO is depressed, the kind of deficit that signals positive regression ahead. When a team generates this much play and converts this poorly, the market corrects. Anaheim stands to benefit.

Toronto enters weakened. The Maple Leafs are -6 in goal differential over their last 10 games, a slide reflecting their already mediocre underlying profile. Auston Matthews, sidelined for 18 days, is likely out, shifting offensive weight to John Tavares. His 0.91 expected goals per 60 minutes, 15 goals, 24 assists, and 12.4% shooting rate mark him as Toronto's primary offensive threat—but it's a thin one.

Anaheim's offensive core is formidable. Cutter Gauthier (25 goals, 16 assists, 0.99 xG/60, 12.9% shooting) and Beckett Sennecke (20 goals, 19 assists, 1.03 xG/60, eight high-danger chances) will generate looks against Toronto's weak link: Bo Groulx on the blue line. Anaheim's corresponding liability—Mason McTavish on defense—faces a depleted Toronto attack that can't exploit it effectively.

The edge is Anaheim's to squander—superior play, regression mathematics in their pocket, and Toronto's compromised roster. The Ducks should win this.