Maple Leafs edge the Ducks in overtime

The projection favors Anaheim. MoneyPuck's model puts the Ducks at 58% win probability in a matchup it expects to land 2.4–2.9 goals, a margin where underlying play becomes decisive.

The Ducks own the territorial advantage convincingly. Anaheim's 52.0% expected goals share and 52.0% Corsi at 5v5 indicate systematic control—they generate higher-quality chances and drive play in ways Toronto hasn't matched this season (46.0% xG, 45.0% Corsi). This structural edge plays out most nights.

But the Ducks are running colder than their numbers deserve. Their 0.981 PDO is depressed, the kind of deficit that signals positive regression ahead. When a team generates this much play and converts this poorly, the market corrects. Anaheim stands to benefit.

Toronto enters weakened. The Maple Leafs are -6 in goal differential over their last 10 games, a slide reflecting their already mediocre underlying profile. Auston Matthews, sidelined for 18 days, is likely out, shifting offensive weight to John Tavares. His 0.91 expected goals per 60 minutes, 15 goals, 24 assists, and 12.4% shooting rate mark him as Toronto's primary offensive threat—but it's a thin one.

Anaheim's offensive core is formidable. Cutter Gauthier (25 goals, 16 assists, 0.99 xG/60, 12.9% shooting) and Beckett Sennecke (20 goals, 19 assists, 1.03 xG/60, eight high-danger chances) will generate looks against Toronto's weak link: Bo Groulx on the blue line. Anaheim's corresponding liability—Mason McTavish on defense—faces a depleted Toronto attack that can't exploit it effectively.

The edge is Anaheim's to squander—superior play, regression mathematics in their pocket, and Toronto's compromised roster. The Ducks should win this.