Motion-blurred skater in a San Jose Sharks sweater

Breakdown · STL at SJS

Sharks hold off the Blues

FinalMon, Mar 30

The verdict · earned

The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

STL 4 · SJS 5

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:41 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Sharks held off the Blues 5–4 despite matching them in rush goals: each team scored four on identical 27-chance rushes. The separation came via San Jose's power play efficiency—3 PPG on 1.05 xG versus 2 PPG on 0.49 xG—and their 57% xG share (3.79–2.87), which converted a competitive game into a one-goal win.

High-danger chances favored San Jose 6–4, reflecting their ability to generate scoring opportunities from the most dangerous areas. Both teams significantly overperformed their expected goals—San Jose by 1.21, St. Louis by 1.13—indicating that variance and shot execution played outsized roles in deciding the game.

Adam Gaudette's wrist shot from the top of the circles (P3, 19:38) proved decisive. Y. Askarov stopped 22 of 26 shots (0.846 SV%) to keep San Jose in control, while J. Hofer's 24 saves on 29 shots (0.828 SV%) underperformed expected save rate by 1.21 goals.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Mar 30

STL

SJS

Sharks hold off the Blues

Chances 2.9 – 3.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Sharks earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

STL

2.87

SJS

3.79

43% of the chances57%

The board read STL 4, SJS 5. The chances read STL 2.9, SJS 3.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

SJS

+1.2

goals above expected

SJS3.79 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

STL2.87 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 05:28STLT. Lindstein1–0
P1 08:30SJSA. WennbergPP1–1
P1 13:25SJSM. CelebriniPP1–2
P1 16:39STLP. Buchnevich2–2
P1 19:04SJSM. Celebrini2–3
P2 10:13SJSA. WennbergPP2–4
P2 19:34STLP. BrobergPP3–4

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

STL

35 shots

Final

74 shots

SJS

39 shots

STL SJS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 5 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

STLSJS

0 / 4

0.94 xG

High danger

2 / 6

1.64 xG

2 / 12

1.41 xG

Medium

2 / 15

1.67 xG

2 / 36

0.53 xG

Low

1 / 35

0.48 xG

The Blues went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

D-

Y. Askarov

−1.1

SJS · 22/26

D-

J. Hofer

−1.2

STL · 24/29

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Sharks hold off the Blues

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 4–11

05:28STLT. Lindstein(J. Neighbours)1–0
08:30SJSA. Wennbergpower play(M. Celebrini, T. Toffoli)1–1
13:25SJSM. Celebrinipower play(D. Orlov, A. Wennberg)1–2
16:39STLP. Buchnevich(J. Neighbours)2–2
19:04SJSM. Celebrini(N. Leddy, W. Smith)2–3

2ndshots 9–9

10:13SJSA. Wennbergpower play(T. Toffoli, W. Smith)2–4
19:34STLP. Brobergpower play(D. Holloway, R. Thomas)3–4

3rdshots 13–9

12:53STLC. Fowlerpower play(J. Kyrou, P. Suter)4–4
19:38SJSA. Gaudette(M. Ferraro, V. Desharnais)4–5

score reads STL–SJS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.79

SJS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.2

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.012

SJS puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

51.9%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.87Expected goals3.79

SJS 57% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal29

4High-danger chances6

52All attempts (Corsi)56

Adjusted for score: STL 51% · SJS 49%

Faceoffs · SJS won56%off41%neu44%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

STL0 / 4 · 0.94 xG

SJS2 / 6 · 1.64 xG

Medium dangermid-range

STL2 / 12 · 1.41 xG

SJS2 / 15 · 1.67 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

STL2 / 36 · 0.53 xG

SJS1 / 35 · 0.48 xG

STL went 2-for-36 from low danger on 0.53 expected goals — 1.5 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

STL

4 G · 2.87 xG · +1.1

SJS

5 G · 3.79 xG · +1.2

0123456

STL finished +1.1 against expected, SJS +1.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

STL

WRIST3/27

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN1/2

SNAP0/0

OTHER0/17

SJS

WRIST4/22

SLAP1/8

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN0/4

SNAP0/1

OTHER0/17

STL

SJS

Off the rush

4 G on 27

2.05 xG

4 G on 27

2.64 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 4

0.51 xG

1 G on 4

0.85 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: STL went 3-for-27, SJS 4-for-22. STL scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Hofer

STL · 24/29 · .828

-1.2

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/61.6-0.4

Medium2/151.7-0.3

Low1/350.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Y. Askarov

SJS · 22/26 · .846

-1.1

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium2/121.4-0.6

Low2/360.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

74 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

STL

35 shots

Final

74 shots

SJS

39 shots

STL SJS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, SJS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Wennberg

#21 · C · SJS

2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:57 on ice · -2

M. Celebrini

#71 · C · SJS

2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 19:45 on ice · +1

W. Smith

#2 · C · SJS

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 19:51 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Mar 30

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 9:39 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.5 game with the Sharks at 50% win probability. This is a perfect pick'em.

The Blues are 7-1-2 over their last 10; the Sharks sit at -15 goal differential in the same span. Over the full season, though, the gulf vanishes. At 5v5, STL leads in xG% (49.0% to 48.0%) and Corsi% (48.0% to 47.0%)—margins indistinguishable from noise. Both teams' PDOs sit at or near 1.000, meaning neither has been luckier than expected.

What separates them is individual shot creation. Jimmy Snuggerud anchors St. Louis at 0.86 xG/60 with 15 goals and 22 assists; his 11.9% shooting rate is sustainable for a high-volume player. Dylan Holloway mirrors him at 0.82 xG/60 with 13 goals, 24 assists, and 10.8% shooting. This duo drives the Blues.

San Jose's offense centers on Pavol Regenda (1.10 xG/60, 5 goals, 1 assist, 16.1% shooting) and Igor Chernyshov (0.91 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists, 15.0% shooting). Regenda generates the highest expected goals per 60 among the four but is marked as likely inactive. Should he sit, Chernyshov becomes the primary scorer.

Close team metrics, recent momentum favoring St. Louis, and Regenda's status uncertainty keep this a true coin flip.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

SJS 51%

50%

SJS

Model favorite

50%

STL50SJS

SJS by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 2.5–2.5 SJS; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

STL← edge

edge →SJS

49.0%48.0%

48.0%47.0%

2.342.33

2.402.56

2.001.99

2.122.32

1.0000.998

STL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.000 vs 0.998) says STL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

STL

7-1-2

+14 GD · 2d rest

SJS

3-6-1

-15 GD · 2d rest

1.000

STL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.998

SJS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

The Blues are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
The Sharks are underwater at -15 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

STL

Expected in goal

J. Binnington

2 days rest.923 last start

Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

SJS

Expected in goal

A. Nedeljkovic

2 days rest.917 last start

Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -18.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

STL

Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A

0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh

Dylan Holloway13G 24A

0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh

SJS

Pavol Regenda5G 1A

1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 16.1% sh

Igor Chernyshov6G 8A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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