Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater

Breakdown · CGY at VGK

Golden Knights run the Flames off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalThu, Apr 2

CGYCalgary Flames3 VGKVegas Golden Knights6

The verdict · earned

The Golden Knights earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CGY 3 · VGK 6

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:08 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Vegas controlled the underlying numbers decisively—68% of 5v5 expected goals (5.13–2.41), 61% of shot attempts (34–22), and 7 high-danger chances to Calgary's 4. Yet they won even bigger. The Golden Knights overperformed their xG by 0.87 goals, converting their advantages into surplus scoring.

Calgary's goaltender, D. Wolf, underperformed his expected save percentage by 0.87 goals—letting in significantly more than models predicted. Vegas's C. Hart underperformed by 0.59 goals, but the offensive output overwhelmed the defensive shortfall. The discrepancy came from Vegas's efficiency in transition: 5 goals on 26 rush chances, compared to Calgary's 3 on 19.

Vegas also crashed the net effectively, generating 6 rebound opportunities with 1 conversion—a sign of persistence rather than reliance on pretty plays. The Golden Knights' depth attack proved decisive: M. Marner (3G, 2A in 17:45) led the charge, followed by I. Barbashev (1G, 2A in 14:47).

Calgary managed moments—B. Coleman scored twice in 18:05—but never generated sustained pressure. Their 2.41 expected goals reflect an inability to threaten consistently beyond the rush. The underlying play favored Vegas at every level, and the scoreboard confirmed it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 2

CGY

VGK

Golden Knights run the Flames off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.4 – 5.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

CGY

2.41

VGK

5.13

32% of the chances68%

The board read CGY 3, VGK 6. The chances read CGY 2.4, VGK 5.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

VGK

+0.9

goals above expected

VGK5.13 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

CGY2.41 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 07:41CGYM. Frost1–0
P2 01:47VGKM. Marner1–1
P2 04:38CGYB. Coleman2–1
P2 06:42VGKM. Marner2–2
P2 12:11CGYB. Coleman3–2
P2 16:21VGKP. DorofeyevPP3–3
P3 12:20VGKB. Howden3–4

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

CGY

28 shots

Final

76 shots

VGK

48 shots

CGY VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

CGYVGK

0 / 4

0.83 xG

High danger

1 / 7

2.72 xG

3 / 14

1.32 xG

Medium

4 / 17

1.86 xG

0 / 19

0.26 xG

Low

1 / 47

0.56 xG

The Flames went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Hart

−0.6

VGK · 19/22

D-

D. Wolf

−0.9

CGY · 28/34

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Golden Knights run the Flames off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–14

07:41CGYM. Frost1–0

2ndshots 11–14

01:47VGKM. Marner(S. Theodore, B. McNabb)1–1
04:38CGYB. Coleman(M. Backlund, J. Farabee)2–1
06:42VGKM. Marner(R. Andersson, J. Eichel)2–2
12:11CGYB. Coleman3–2
16:21VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Marner)3–3

3rdshots 3–6

12:20VGKB. Howden(S. Theodore, I. Barbashev)3–4
14:59VGKI. Barbashev(M. Marner)3–5
18:31VGKM. Marner(M. Stone, I. Barbashev)3–6

score reads CGY–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

5.13

VGK chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.003

VGK puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

65.7%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.41Expected goals5.13

VGK 68% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal34

4High-danger chances7

37All attempts (Corsi)71

Adjusted for score: CGY 34% · VGK 66%

Faceoffs · VGK won44%off57%neu31%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

CGY0 / 4 · 0.83 xG

VGK1 / 7 · 2.72 xG

Medium dangermid-range

CGY3 / 14 · 1.32 xG

VGK4 / 17 · 1.86 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

CGY0 / 19 · 0.26 xG

VGK1 / 47 · 0.56 xG

VGK went 4-for-17 from medium danger on 1.86 expected goals — 2.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

CGY

3 G · 2.41 xG · +0.6

VGK

6 G · 5.13 xG · +0.9

01234567

CGY finished +0.6 against expected, VGK +0.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

CGY

WRIST2/16

SLAP0/6

TIP IN0/1

SNAP1/3

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/9

VGK

WRIST3/27

SLAP1/8

TIP IN1/6

SNAP0/3

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

BAT0/1

WRAP AROUND1/1

OTHER0/23

CGY

VGK

Off the rush

3 G on 19

2.01 xG

5 G on 26

2.39 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

1 G on 6

0.99 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CGY went 2-for-16, VGK 3-for-27. VGK scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

D. Wolf

CGY · 28/34 · .824

-0.9

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/72.7+1.7

Medium4/171.9-2.1

Low1/470.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Hart

VGK · 19/22 · .864

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.8+0.8

Medium3/141.3-1.7

Low0/190.3+0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

76 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

CGY

28 shots

Final

76 shots

VGK

48 shots

CGY VGK GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — CGY left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Marner

#93 · R · VGK

3 G · 2 A · 6 SOG · 17:45 on ice · +3

I. Barbashev

#49 · L · VGK

1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 14:47 on ice · +4

B. Coleman

#20 · L · CGY

2 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 18:05 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Apr 2

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.2 - 2.7 Vegas margin with the Golden Knights at 58% win probability. This edge is worth playing because both teams are running significantly cold on PDO and are due for positive regression.

Vegas owns the underlying play. The Golden Knights' 54.0% 5v5 expected goals share reflects territorial control; their 52.0% Corsi% confirms it. Vegas is tilting the ice on nearly every shift. Calgary, at 47.0% xG% and 49.0% Corsi%, is chasing.

Both teams' PDO numbers — Vegas at 0.983, Calgary at 0.985 — tell a crucial story. Both are significantly underperforming their underlying shot volume and quality, and positive regression is coming for both. This game could see a scoring environment warmer than the model assumes.

Blake Coleman is Calgary's critical player, carrying 0.89 xG/60 with 16G 12A. His 11.4% shooting rate and 2 high-danger goals show he's generating dangerous chances consistently. Vegas must neutralize him. Matt Coronato, posting 0.80 xG/60 with 10G 16A and a 6.6% shooting rate, is a liability defensively and could see pressure if Coleman draws top-line attention.

Vegas counters with Tomas Hertl at 0.88 xG/60 and 5G 17A, though his 4.3% shooting rate runs far colder than Coleman's. Brandon Saad, at 0.91 xG/60 with 3G 6A and 1 high-danger goal, is likely out, removing Vegas's second-tier scoring punch.

Neither team generates scoring through high-danger or rebound chances — both sit at 0% on each metric. The offense funnels through fewer playmakers: Coleman and Coronato for Calgary, Hertl for Vegas.

Rasmus Andersson emerges as Vegas's defensive weak link. If Calgary sustains possession, they could exploit him.

The real story: Vegas's underlying superiority against the regression edge both teams carry. Vegas should prevail, but expect a closer final score than the xG differential suggests.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 59%

58%

VGK

Model favorite

42%

58%

CGY50VGK

VGK by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CGY 2.2–2.7 VGK; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

CGY← edge

edge →VGK

47.0%54.0%

49.0%52.0%

2.362.52

2.662.11

1.762.12

2.152.10

0.9850.983

VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.985 vs 0.983) says CGY has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

CGY

6-3-1

-1 GD · 2d rest

VGK

4-4-2

-3 GD · 2d rest

0.985

CGY PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

CGY

Expected in goal

D. Cooley

2 days rest.848 last start

Backup Dustin Wolf · -1.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

VGK

Expected in goal

A. Hill

2 days rest.917 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

CGY

Blake Coleman16G 12A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.4% sh

Matt Coronato10G 16A

0.80 xG/60 · 0 HD · 6.6% sh

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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