The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
San Jose's control registered everywhere it mattered. They posted 56% of 5v5 expected goals (3.51–2.73), 56% of shot attempts (25–20), and 6 high-danger chances to Toronto's 3. The 4-1 scoreline reflected that dominance.
Goaltending amplified the gap beyond what underlying play delivered. A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) stopped 1.7 goals above expected, an elite performance. A. Stolarz (TOR) overperformed by only 0.51 goals, meaning Toronto's offense bore the weight: they underperformed their 2.73 expected goals by 1.73, wasting quality looks against a hot backstop.
San Jose's finish from high-risk areas compounded Toronto's misfortune. W. Eklund and Z. Ostapchuk each recorded 1G–1A, while the Sharks converted 2 low-danger attempts—plays that defending teams hope to escape. The rush game was their execution engine: 4 goals on 24 rush chances, a conversion rate that punishes weak transition defense.
Adam Gaudette's wrist shot from the high slot (P3, 19:03) crystallized San Jose's control at a moment when Toronto's seams had already widened. By then, Nedeljkovic's excellence and the Sharks' finishing touch had erased any pathway back.
Toronto generated the structure to compete: 6 high-danger chances, 4 rebound opportunities off crashed nets. Finish separated the teams. The underlying numbers suggested a closer contest than the scoreboard displayed, yet precision and goaltending luck determined the actual margin.
