St. Louis routed Anaheim 6-2, but expected goals ran 3.85-3.34—a split that suggests a much closer game. The Ducks underperformed their xG by 1.85 goals; the Blues overshot theirs by 2.66. The gap came down to goaltending and execution.

J. Hofer (STL) stopped 1.85 goals above expected on 25 saves. L. Dostal (ANA) allowed 2.66 more than expected on 29 shots. That variance alone accounts for most of the margin.

St. Louis translated this edge into rush dominance, scoring four goals on 26 transition attempts. Dylan Holloway's sharp-angle snap shot (P3, 01:22) served as the pivot.

The Blues' power play added distance: 2 goals on 7 attempts.

Anaheim wasn't toothless—nine high-danger chances to St. Louis's three—but three rebound opportunities yielded nothing. The underlying story: quality without conversion.

Final: STL 6 – ANA 2

The model projects a STL 2.5-2.7 ANA game with the Ducks at 55% win probability—as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Anaheim owns the underlying play. The Ducks hold a 52.0% 5v5 expected goals share against St. Louis's 49.0%, and control the puck at a 52.0% Corsi clip to the Blues' 48.0%. Territorial domination should translate to more chances and better chances. Yet the Ducks' PDO of 0.981 tells a different story: they're running cold on the shot-luck scale, which means regression toward average is baked in. St. Louis's PDO of 1.000 means they're getting their typical bounces. Anaheim hasn't.

Both goalies check in on the second night of back-to-backs. L. Dostal faces either rest or fatigue; J. Binnington does the same. How each team deploys—backup or tired starter—carries real consequence.

Offensively, the gap between the teams' best players reveals hierarchy. Beckett Sennecke runs 1.03 expected goals per 60 and has scored 20 goals with 8 hard-chance conversions on a 13.5% shooting rate—elite volume and elite finishing. Cutter Gauthier (0.99 xG/60, 25 goals, 12.9% shooting) sustains that offensive pressure. St. Louis counters with Jimmy Snuggerud (0.86 xG/60, 15 goals, 11.9% shooting, 2 hard-chance conversions) and Dylan Holloway (0.82 xG/60, 13 goals, 10.8% shooting). The Blues have depth, but Sennecke isolates as the single most efficient finisher in this matchup.

Both teams register 0% hard-chance goal rates and 0% rebound conversion rates. Anaheim's defensive weak link is Mason McTavish; St. Louis's is Jimmy Snuggerud.

The Ducks' possession and shot-quality edge should prevail. Their cold PDO is the only structural reason this remains a flip. Back-to-back goaltending—and deployment decisions—could distribute variance either direction, but the underlying edge belongs to Anaheim.