Breakdown · DET at NYR

J. Quick stands tall as the Rangers edge the Red Wings

FinalSat, Apr 4

DETDetroit Red Wings1 NYRNew York Rangers4

The verdict · stolen

The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.99–3.12 and won anyway.

DET 1 · NYR 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:26 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Rangers stole one. They beat the Red Wings 4-1 despite being outshot in expected goals, 3.99–3.12—the Red Wings controlled 56% of chances at 5v5, yet left the ice with only one goal to show for it. This was pure variance, masked by a goaltender who played the game of his life.

J. Quick made the difference. He finished 32 of 33 shots (0.970 SV%), stopping 2.99 goals above expected—the margin between a regulation loss and a comfortable win. He was perfect on the Red Wings' most dangerous looks: 100% on high-danger chances, denying all six when it mattered most.

Detroit couldn't finish. They had six high-danger opportunities and converted zero. They underperformed their xG by 3.0 goals, wasting a performance that should have produced at least twice as many. J. Gibson wasn't the problem (0.842 SV%); the Red Wings simply squandered their chances.

New York, meanwhile, was clinical where it counted. They were 2 for 4 in the high-danger zone and ruthless on the rush, scoring four goals on just 24 chances from that situation. A. Fox orchestrated from the back with two assists over 22:39. V. Gavrikov added a helper over 26:00 of work. G. Perreault led the scoring with three goals in just 15:44—the kind of burst that comes when a team is both efficient and lucky.

The scoresheet read Rangers 4, Red Wings 1. The chances said it should have been much closer. Quick's brilliance in net made sure it wasn't.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 4

DET

NYR

J. Quick stands tall as the Rangers edge the Red Wings

Chances 4.0 – 3.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Red Wings deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

DET

3.99

NYR

3.12

56% of the chances44%

The board read DET 1, NYR 4. The chances read DET 4.0, NYR 3.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+0.9

goals above expected

NYR3.12 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

DET3.99 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Red Wings left 3.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 13:19NYRJ. Chmelar0–1
P2 15:59NYRG. Perreault0–2
P3 07:13NYRG. PerreaultPP0–3
P3 18:16NYRG. PerreaultEN0–4
P3 19:27DETD. Perron1–4

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

DET

57 shots

Final

88 shots

NYR

31 shots

DET NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

DETNYR

0 / 6

1.31 xG

High danger

2 / 4

1.40 xG

0 / 16

1.72 xG

Medium

2 / 14

1.31 xG

1 / 53

0.95 xG

Low

0 / 29

0.41 xG

The Red Wings went 0 for 6 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Quick

+3.0

NYR · 32/33

J. Gibson

+0.1

DET · 16/19

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

J. Quick stands tall as the Rangers edge the Red Wings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–6

13:19NYRJ. Chmelar(V. Gavrikov, A. Sykora)0–1

2ndshots 6–7

15:59NYRG. Perreault(M. Zibanejad, M. Robertson)0–2

3rdshots 19–7

07:13NYRG. Perreaultpower play(J. Brodzinski, A. Fox)0–3
18:16NYRG. Perreaultempty net(J. Miller, A. Fox)0–4
19:27DETD. Perron(E. Finnie, J. van Riemsdyk)1–4

score reads DET–NYR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.12

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.072

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

38.5%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.99Expected goals3.12

DET 56% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal20

6High-danger chances4

75All attempts (Corsi)47

Adjusted for score: DET 66% · NYR 34%

Faceoffs · NYR won41%off71%neu77%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

DET0 / 6 · 1.31 xG

NYR2 / 4 · 1.40 xG

Medium dangermid-range

DET0 / 16 · 1.72 xG

NYR2 / 14 · 1.31 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

DET1 / 53 · 0.95 xG

NYR0 / 29 · 0.41 xG

DET went 0-for-16 from medium danger on 1.72 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

DET

1 G · 3.99 xG · -3.0

NYR

4 G · 3.12 xG · +0.9

012345

DET finished -3.0 against expected, NYR +0.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

DET

WRIST1/35

TIP IN0/7

SNAP0/5

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/4

DEFLECTED0/2

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/18

NYR

WRIST3/10

TIP IN1/8

SNAP0/6

SLAP0/4

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/16

DET

NYR

Off the rush

1 G on 37

2.76 xG

4 G on 24

2.79 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 4

0.64 xG

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: DET went 1-for-35, NYR 3-for-10. NYR scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Gibson

DET · 16/19 · .842

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/41.4-0.6

Medium2/141.3-0.7

Low0/290.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Quick

NYR · 32/33 · .970

+3.0

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/61.3+1.3

Medium0/161.7+1.7

Low1/530.9-0.1

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

88 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

DET

57 shots

Final

88 shots

NYR

31 shots

DET NYR GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — DET left, NYR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

G. Perreault

#94 · R · NYR

3 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 15:44 on ice · +2

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 22:39 on ice · +2

V. Gavrikov

#44 · D · NYR

0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 26:00 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Apr 4

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:11 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a DET 2.4–2.5 NYR matchup with the Rangers at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

The underlying 5v5 picture backs that tightness. Detroit and New York converge on nearly identical underlying metrics: both teams sit at 49.0% Corsi, and their expected goal shares diverge by just one percentage point (DET 49.0%, NYR 48.0%). The separation emerges in luck. Detroit's PDO of 0.985 reflects a team underperforming its chances; New York's 1.009 suggests the Rangers have converted or gotten out-shot at margins the model didn't predict. Neither edge is substantial enough to break the tie.

The offensive burden falls on proven shot generators. Alex DeBrincat carries Detroit's load at 0.88 xG per 60 minutes, with 17 goals and 28 assists on 9.0% shooting and 2 high-danger goals. Marco Kasper supplies 0.81 xG/60 with 7 goals, 8 assists, and 1 high-danger goal, though his 6.1% shooting suggests positive regression ahead. New York counters with Adam Sykora at 0.91 xG/60 and 3 goals, 1 assist; his 20.0% shooting rate is elevated but the volume is small. Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60, 8 goals, 11 assists, 2 high-danger goals, 13.1% shooting) provides New York a secondary threat with more consistent production.

Both teams register 0% for high-danger goal rate and 0% for rebound goal rate. That's a puzzle—it's not how NHL scoring typically distributes—and suggests a small-sample quirk or a definition gap in how these teams' finishing is measured.

Defensively, Detroit has Axel Sandin-Pellikka as a weak link, and New York has Vincent Iorio. Neither represents a catastrophic vulnerability, but both are candidates to exploit in sustained pressure.

Goaltending is the only tiebreaker here. No other variable separates two teams this evenly matched on chances, control, and shot generation.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYR 52%

52%

NYR

Model favorite

48%

52%

DET50NYR

NYR by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DET 2.4–2.5 NYR; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

DET← edge

edge →NYR

49.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.382.26

2.502.40

1.731.88

2.071.90

0.9851.009

NYR holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.985 vs 1.009) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

DET

4-5-1

-3 GD · 2d rest

NYR

3-6-1

-3 GD · 2d rest

0.985

DET PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

DET

Expected in goal

J. Gibson

2 days rest.941 last start

Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

2 days rest.880 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

DET

Alex DeBrincat17G 28A

0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh

Marco Kasper7G 8A

0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page