Motion-blurred skater in a Vegas Golden Knights sweater

Breakdown · VGK at EDM

C. Hart stands tall as the Golden Knights edge the Oilers

FinalSat, Apr 4

VGKVegas Golden Knights5 EDMEdmonton Oilers1

The verdict · coin flip

The Golden Knights won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

VGK 5 · EDM 1

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:23 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The 5-1 scoreline conceals a much tighter game. Expected goals split 3.62–3.58 in Edmonton's favor, yet Vegas claimed a decisive victory through goaltending and efficiency.

The underlying play was competitive. The Oilers held 49% of shot attempts and generated 3.62 expected goals; Vegas produced 3.58 but led 33–32 in shots on goal. In the scoring areas that matter most, the margin widened. Vegas generated six high-danger chances and converted zero. Edmonton's C. Ingram posted a 100% save percentage on six high-danger shots—stellar work that couldn't overcome what happened elsewhere.

Vegas overperformed its xG by 1.42 goals; Edmonton underperformed by 2.62. That divergence belongs to C. Hart. The Vegas goalie stopped 31 of 32 shots for a 0.969 save percentage, saving 2.6 goals above expected and essentially stealing the game. Edmonton's underlying metrics hide a team that created chances and squandered them: five rebound opportunities generated, zero converted.

Rasmus Andersson's goal from the top of the circles at 16:13 of the third period ignited the rout, but Hart's dominance predetermined the outcome. Vegas's rush attack was lethal—four goals on 23 rush attempts. Edmonton crashed the crease effectively but never found the back of the net.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 4

VGK

EDM

C. Hart stands tall as the Golden Knights edge the Oilers

Chances 3.6 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Golden Knights took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

VGK

3.58

EDM

3.62

50% of the chances50%

The board read VGK 5, EDM 1. The chances read VGK 3.6, EDM 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

VGK

+1.4

goals above expected

VGK3.58 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

EDM3.62 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Oilers left 2.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 11:43VGKB. Howden1–0
P2 05:44VGKC. Sissons2–0
P2 08:05VGKJ. Lauzon3–0
P2 19:26EDME. Bouchard3–1
P3 04:04VGKM. Stone4–1
P3 16:13VGKR. AnderssonPP5–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

VGK

43 shots

Final

92 shots

EDM

49 shots

VGK EDM GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

VGKEDM

0 / 6

1.73 xG

High danger

0 / 4

0.99 xG

4 / 12

1.39 xG

Medium

1 / 18

2.10 xG

1 / 38

0.46 xG

Low

0 / 44

0.54 xG

The Oilers went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

C. Hart

+2.6

VGK · 31/32

D-

C. Ingram

−1.4

EDM · 28/33

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

C. Hart stands tall as the Golden Knights edge the Oilers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 11–10

11:43VGKB. Howden(J. Eichel)1–0

2ndshots 11–8

05:44VGKC. Sissons(M. Marner, J. Lauzon)2–0
08:05VGKJ. Lauzon(J. Eichel, B. Howden)3–0
19:26EDME. Bouchard(J. Roslovic, M. Savoie)3–1

3rdshots 11–14

04:04VGKM. Stone(I. Barbashev, J. Eichel)4–1
16:13VGKR. Anderssonpower play(I. Barbashev, N. Hanifin)5–1

score reads VGK–EDM

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.58

VGK chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.074

VGK puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

45.9%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.58Expected goals3.62

EDM 50% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal32

6High-danger chances4

56All attempts (Corsi)66

Adjusted for score: VGK 41% · EDM 59%

Faceoffs · EDM won64%off60%neu48%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

VGK0 / 6 · 1.73 xG

EDM0 / 4 · 0.99 xG

Medium dangermid-range

VGK4 / 12 · 1.39 xG

EDM1 / 18 · 2.10 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

VGK1 / 38 · 0.46 xG

EDM0 / 44 · 0.54 xG

VGK went 4-for-12 from medium danger on 1.39 expected goals — 2.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

VGK

5 G · 3.58 xG · +1.4

EDM

1 G · 3.62 xG · -2.6

0123456

VGK finished +1.4 against expected, EDM -2.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

VGK

SNAP1/5

WRIST1/21

BACKHAND1/5

SLAP1/7

TIP IN1/4

DEFLECTED0/0

BAT0/1

OTHER0/13

EDM

SNAP1/32

WRIST0/2

BACKHAND0/6

SLAP0/4

TIP IN0/3

DEFLECTED0/2

BAT0/0

OTHER0/17

VGK

EDM

Off the rush

4 G on 23

2.81 xG

1 G on 32

2.87 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 4

0.57 xG

0 G on 5

0.41 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: VGK went 1-for-5, EDM 1-for-32. VGK scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Hart

VGK · 31/32 · .969

+2.6

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/41.0+1.0

Medium1/182.1+1.1

Low0/440.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Ingram

EDM · 28/33 · .848

-1.4

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/61.7+1.7

Medium4/121.4-2.6

Low1/380.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

92 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

VGK

43 shots

Final

92 shots

EDM

49 shots

VGK EDM GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, EDM right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Eichel

#9 · C · VGK

0 G · 3 A · 2 SOG · 18:08 on ice · +3

B. Howden

#21 · C · VGK

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 15:59 on ice · +1

I. Barbashev

#49 · L · VGK

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 15:21 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Apr 4

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:22 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects 2.5 to 2.5 with the Oilers at 50% win probability—this is a complete coin flip.

Edmonton has the momentum. The Oilers are 7-2-1 in their last 10, running a points-pace advantage over Vegas. But the numbers also favor Vegas: 54.0% expected-goals share versus Edmonton's 52.0%, and 52.0% Corsis to Edmonton's 50.0%. Vegas should be winning more than it is.

Both teams are due. Vegas's PDO sits at 0.983, Edmonton's at 0.982—each running cold and heading for positive regression that could swing this either direction. That uncertainty is the game's defining feature.

Goaltending adds another layer. T. Jarry is on a back-to-back; watch whether Vegas runs him out or pivots to backup. C. Hart faces the same situation for Edmonton. Tired starters or untested relief could tip the result more than the underlying matchup.

Edmonton's shot generation leads the conversation. Zach Hyman sits at 1.23 expected goals per 60, with 14 goals to 13 assists on 13.0% shooting—he's converting at an elite rate. Connor McDavid: 25 goals, 33 assists, 5 high-danger chances, 13.7% shooting. That duo controls Edmonton's ceiling.

Vegas's answer is Tomas Hertl at 0.88 expected goals per 60, with 5 goals and 17 assists on 4.3% shooting. Brandon Saad would matter—0.91 xG/60, 3 goals and 6 assists—but he's marked likely inactive, so Vegas's secondary scoring question falls entirely to Hertl.

Vegas's defensive liability is Rasmus Andersson. Edmonton's is Jake Walman. Isolate those minutes, and there's real value.

The model knows what it's saying. The Oilers have recent form and superstar ceiling. Vegas has the underlying metrics and the regression lottery ticket. Pick one and defend it—there's data supporting either choice.

Data: MoneyPuck 5v5 models, NHL API

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

EDM 50%

50%

EDM

Model favorite

50%

VGK50EDM

EDM by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.5 EDM; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK← edge

edge →EDM

54.0%52.0%

52.0%50.0%

2.522.64

2.112.47

2.122.13

2.102.29

0.9830.982

VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 0.982) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

VGK

4-4-2

-4 GD · 1d rest

EDM

7-2-1

+7 GD · 1d rest

0.983

VGK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.982

EDM PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

T. Jarry is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

VGK

Expected in goal

C. Hart

back-to-back.864 last start

Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

EDM

Expected in goal

T. Jarry

back-to-back.944 last start

Backup Connor Ingram · +1.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

VGK

Brandon Saad3G 6A

0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh

Tomas Hertl5G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh

EDM

Zach Hyman14G 13A

1.23 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.0% sh

Connor McDavid25G 33A

0.92 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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