The Flames earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Flames survived a lopsided shot chart to beat the Ducks 5–3, converting their limited chances while Anaheim squandered offensive volume into a losing margin.
Anaheim fired 39 shots and controlled 66% of shot attempts, yet scored only three goals. Calgary generated just 20 shots but buried five. The discrepancy reflected shot quality: Calgary's attempts carried 0.109 expected goals per shot, nearly double Anaheim's 0.060. When one team takes two-thirds of the chances and still loses, it's not playing better—it's playing more and scoring worse.
D. Cooley (CGY) saved 1.83 goals above his expected performance on 36 saves, stealing the game. V. Husso (ANA) posted a 0.789 save percentage, overperforming his expected by 1.34, but it wasn't enough to mask the underlying offensive failure. Anaheim underperformed its expected goals by 1.83 runs—a telling collapse.
The high-danger tally painted a starker picture. Calgary generated 11 dangerous chances to Anaheim's six, a 2-to-1 ratio that foreshadowed the scoreline. The Ducks created 10 rebound opportunities and converted just one, crashing the net without finish.
Where Anaheim found success, it came from structure. The Ducks scored twice from rush situations on 34 chances—a lethal conversion rate. Calgary, by contrast, scored five times from 24 rush attempts, dominating the transition game.
M. Frost's wrist shot from the slot in the third period proved the turning point, extending Calgary's lead and closing out the upset. Frost added another goal in 15:32 of ice time. J. Farabee chipped in a goal and assist in 15:42, while M. Gridin posted a goal and an assist in 14:02.
This was Calgary suppressing a volume-shooting opponent through concentrated danger and goaltending. Anaheim's lesson: volume without precision is expensive.
