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Breakdown · CHI at SEA

Blackhawks run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

The verdict · earned

The Blackhawks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CHI 4 · SEA 2
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:29 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The 4-2 final understates Chicago's control. The Blackhawks dominated on the underlying numbers—capturing 60% of 5v5 expected goals at 4.30 to 2.82.

But the real gap was in shot quality. The Kraken generated expected goals at just 0.045 per shot, compared to Chicago's 0.072—a 60% quality advantage for the Blackhawks. This explains how a roughly even possession battle, where Seattle held 47% of shot attempts, turned into a rout. The Kraken underperformed their xG by 0.82 goals; had they converted to expectation, the final would have stayed close.

Ilya Mikheyev's wrist shot from the wing (P3, 18:48) marked the turn, crystallizing Chicago's dominance at a moment when the Blackhawks were already ahead in the underlying metrics.

High-danger chances split 5-5, but Chicago converted the ones that mattered. The Blackhawks went 3-for-5 on HD chances (60%); Seattle managed 2-for-5 (40%). Chicago's 34 rush chances produced 4 goals. A. Soderblom posted a 0.926 SV% and outperformed expected by 0.82 goals. P. Grubauer was even sharper—0.900 SV% and 1.30 goals above expected—yet it didn't matter. Some nights, elite goaltending can't overcome a fundamental quality gap.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 4
CHI
4
SEA
2

Blackhawks run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.3 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blackhawks earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CHI
4.30
SEA
2.82
60% of the chances40%

The board read CHI 4, SEA 2. The chances read CHI 4.3, SEA 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CHI
−0.3
goals above expected
CHI4.30 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
SEA2.82 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 09:15CHIT. TeravainenPP1–0
  2. P2 19:37CHIT. Bertuzzi2–0
  3. P3 10:48SEAJ. Schwartz2–1
  4. P3 13:08CHIS. Boisvert3–1
  5. P3 14:18SEAK. Kakko3–2
  6. P3 18:48CHII. MikheyevEN4–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CHI
47 shots
4
Final
87 shots
SEA
40 shots
2
CHI attackSEA attack
CHI SEA Goal
47
shots · 4 in
40
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CHISEA
3 / 5
1.63 xG
High danger
2 / 5
1.20 xG
1 / 21
2.17 xG
Medium
0 / 11
1.13 xG
0 / 34
0.50 xG
Low
0 / 46
0.49 xG

The Blackhawks buried 3 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
P. Grubauer
+1.3
SEA · 27/30
B+
A. Soderblom
+0.8
CHI · 25/27
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blackhawks run the Kraken off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–4no goals
    2ndshots 14–11
    1. 09:15CHIT. Teravainenpower play(C. Bedard, F. Nazar)1–0
    2. 19:37CHIT. Bertuzzi(I. Mikheyev, W. Kaiser)2–0
    3rdshots 7–12
    1. 10:48SEAJ. Schwartz(E. Tolvanen, M. Beniers)2–1
    2. 13:08CHIS. Boisvert(K. Korchinski, L. Slaggert)3–1
    3. 14:18SEAK. Kakko(B. Catton, J. Schwartz)3–2
    4. 18:48CHII. Mikheyevempty net(W. Kaiser, C. Bedard)4–2

    score reads CHI–SEA

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.30
    CHI chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.3
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.034
    CHI puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    49.2%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.30Expected goals2.82
    CHI 60% of the chance quality
    31Shots on goal27
    5High-danger chances5
    60All attempts (Corsi)62
    Adjusted for score: CHI 46% · SEA 54%
    Faceoffs · SEA won59%off33%neu64%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    CHI3 / 5 · 1.63 xG
    SEA2 / 5 · 1.20 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    CHI1 / 21 · 2.17 xG
    SEA0 / 11 · 1.13 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    CHI0 / 34 · 0.50 xG
    SEA0 / 46 · 0.49 xG

    CHI went 3-for-5 from high danger on 1.63 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    CHI
    4 G · 4.30 xG · -0.3
    SEA
    2 G · 2.82 xG · -0.8
    012345

    CHI finished -0.3 against expected, SEA -0.8.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    CHI
    WRIST3/34
    SLAP0/2
    BACKHAND0/4
    SNAP1/4
    TIP IN0/1
    POKE0/2
    OTHER0/13
    SEA
    WRIST1/23
    SLAP0/7
    BACKHAND0/4
    SNAP1/2
    TIP IN0/4
    POKE0/0
    OTHER0/22
    CHI
    SEA
    Off the rush
    4 G on 34
    3.76 xG
    1 G on 21
    1.83 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 4
    0.36 xG
    1 G on 3
    0.67 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: CHI went 3-for-34, SEA 1-for-23. CHI scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Soderblom
    CHI · 25/27 · .926
    +0.8
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/51.2-0.8
    Medium0/111.1+1.1
    Low0/460.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    P. Grubauer
    SEA · 27/30 · .900
    +1.3
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger3/51.6-1.4
    Medium1/212.2+1.2
    Low0/340.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    87 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    CHI
    47 shots
    4
    Final
    87 shots
    SEA
    40 shots
    2
    CHI attackSEA attack
    CHI SEA Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — CHI left, SEA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    W. Kaiser
    #44 · D · CHI
    0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 20:41 on ice · -1
    C. Bedard
    #98 · C · CHI
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 17:41 on ice
    I. Mikheyev
    #95 · R · CHI
    1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 17:14 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Apr 4
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:28 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.3–2.7 goal spread favoring Seattle, with the Kraken at 56% win probability. That edge rests on a cleaner process advantage that neither team's recent form has fully erased.

    Seattle owns the underlying play. The Kraken carry a 46.0% 5v5 expected goals share versus Chicago's 42.0%—a four-point edge that persists even as both teams have stumbled. The Blackhawks sit at 0.996 PDO (lucky to be even), while Seattle's 1.011 suggests modest overperformance. Corsi% tells a murkier story: Chicago at 46.0%, Seattle at 45.0%, almost indistinguishable.

    Both teams entered this game wounded. Chicago has been -17 on goal differential over its last 10 games; Seattle, -10. Neither club is playing well, but the Kraken's underlying metrics haven't deteriorated the way the Blackhawks' have. That disconnect—when a team's numbers say it should be better than its results—often persists longer than you'd expect.

    The goaltending situation clouds the matchup. Both J. Daccord and S. Knight skate on back-to-backs, raising the prospect of a backup starter or a fatigued regular. Watch for that decision in the pre-game lineup. It could swing the edge.

    For Chicago, Tyler Bertuzzi is the primary threat: 20 goals and 15 assists on 0.85 xG/60, with 7 high-danger goals and an 18.0% shooting rate that far exceeds expectation. Connor Bedard adds 17 goals and 27 assists at 0.82 xG/60, with 5 high-danger goals at 11.8% shooting—also above his underlying metrics.

    Seattle counters with Shane Wright at 0.77 xG/60 with 8 goals and 10 assists, though only 4 high-danger goals at 10.4% shooting. Berkly Catton (0.68 xG/60, 6 goals, 8 assists, 5 high-danger goals, 8.8% shooting) provides complementary scoring in smaller volume.

    The Kraken's advantage on expected goals doesn't guarantee a translation to the scoreboard. Anton Frondell emerges as Chicago's defensive weak link; Chandler Stephenson, Seattle's. That gap may ultimately decide which team's underlying advantage bleeds into the win column.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    SEA 56%
    56%
    SEA
    Model favorite
    44%
    56%
    CHI50SEA

    SEA by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CHI 2.3–2.7 SEA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CHI← edge
    edge →SEA
    42.0%46.0%
    46.0%45.0%
    2.172.13
    2.942.51
    1.841.87
    2.411.95
    0.9961.011

    SEA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 1.011) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    CHI
    2-5-3
    -17 GD · 1d rest
    SEA
    3-5-2
    -10 GD · 1d rest
    0.996
    CHI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.011
    SEA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Kraken own the underlying play — 46.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
    Things to watch
    • The Kraken own the underlying play — 46.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.0%.
    • J. Daccord is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • S. Knight is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Kraken are underwater at -10 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Blackhawks are underwater at -17 goal differential over their last 10.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    CHI
    Expected in goal
    S. Knight
    back-to-back.970 last start
    Backup Spencer Knight · +10.9 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    SEA
    Expected in goal
    J. Daccord
    back-to-back.806 last start
    Backup Joey Daccord · -6.2 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CHI
    Tyler Bertuzzi20G 15A
    0.85 xG/60 · 7 HD · 18.0% sh
    Connor Bedard17G 27A
    0.82 xG/60 · 5 HD · 11.8% sh
    SEA
    Shane Wright8G 10A
    0.77 xG/60 · 4 HD · 10.4% sh
    Berkly Catton6G 8A
    0.68 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next