Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Minnesota Wild sweater
← Sun, Apr 5 · the slate
Breakdown · MIN at DET

Wild hold off the Red Wings

FinalSun, Apr 5
MINMinnesota Wild5DETDetroit Red Wings4
The verdict · stolen

The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.02–3.31 and won anyway.

MIN 5 · DET 4
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:31 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Minnesota's 5-4 win belies the underlying battle. The Red Wings held 55% of shot attempts and led 3.31–3.02 in expected goals—advantages that should have brought at least a tie. Variance broke both ways: the Wild overperformed their xG by 1.98 goals, and Talbot underperformed his by the same amount (0.750 SV% on 20 shots).

Kirill Kaprizov's slap shot from the circles (P3, 18:09) marked Minnesota's turn. K. Kaprizov finished with 3 goals in 19:53. P. Kane answered for Detroit with 1 goal and 1 assist in 19:09; M. Boldy chipped in 1 goal and 1 assist for Minnesota in 19:03.

Minnesota's shot quality separated the teams: the Wild averaged 0.066 xG per shot versus Detroit's 0.047. The Red Wings proved lethal on the rush—3 goals on 28 chances—yet squandered high-danger opportunities (0 for 5). Minnesota's own 0 for 6 on high-danger chances is equally unlikely to repeat. Both clubs scored twice from low-danger spots, a pair of conversions that should not have succeeded.

F. Gustavsson saved 20 of 24 for Minnesota (0.833 SV%, -0.69 versus expected), steady enough to weather the underlying disadvantage.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 5
MIN
5
DET
4

Wild hold off the Red Wings

Chances 3.0 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Wild took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
MIN
3.02
DET
3.31
48% of the chances52%

The board read MIN 5, DET 4. The chances read MIN 3.0, DET 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MIN
+2.0
goals above expected
MIN3.02 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
DET3.31 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored

The Wild scored 2.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:40DETA. Johansson0–1
  2. P2 00:18MINM. Boldy1–1
  3. P2 01:25MINK. Kaprizov2–1
  4. P2 07:03MINV. Tarasenko3–1
  5. P2 12:32MINK. Kaprizov4–1
  6. P3 07:18DETA. Sandin-Pellikka4–2
  7. P3 11:14DETJ. Compher4–3
+2 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MIN
38 shots
5
Final
81 shots
DET
43 shots
4
MIN attackDET attack
MIN DET Goal
38
shots · 5 in
43
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MINDET
0 / 6
1.48 xG
High danger
0 / 5
1.15 xG
3 / 8
0.83 xG
Medium
2 / 14
1.50 xG
2 / 32
0.71 xG
Low
2 / 52
0.65 xG

The Red Wings went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
D
F. Gustavsson
−0.7
MIN · 20/24
F
C. Talbot
−2.0
DET · 15/20
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Wild hold off the Red Wings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–3
  1. 01:40DETA. Johansson(A. Sandin-Pellikka, P. Kane)0–1
2ndshots 7–6
  1. 00:18MINM. Boldy(J. Eriksson Ek)1–1
  2. 01:25MINK. Kaprizov(R. Hartman, M. Zuccarello)2–1
  3. 07:03MINV. Tarasenko(J. Middleton, R. Hartman)3–1
  4. 12:32MINK. Kaprizov(B. Faber)4–1
3rdshots 7–15
  1. 07:18DETA. Sandin-Pellikka(D. Larkin, L. Raymond)4–2
  2. 11:14DETJ. Compher(S. Edvinsson, M. Kasper)4–3
  3. 14:36DETP. Kane(A. DeBrincat, A. Copp)4–4
  4. 18:09MINK. Kaprizovpower play(M. Boldy, M. Zuccarello)5–4

score reads MIN–DET

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.02
MIN chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.052
MIN puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
39.3%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.02Expected goals3.31
DET 52% of the chance quality
20Shots on goal24
6High-danger chances5
46All attempts (Corsi)71
Adjusted for score: MIN 37% · DET 63%
Faceoffs · DET won57%off62%neu64%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
MIN0 / 6 · 1.48 xG
DET0 / 5 · 1.15 xG
Medium dangermid-range
MIN3 / 8 · 0.83 xG
DET2 / 14 · 1.50 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
MIN2 / 32 · 0.71 xG
DET2 / 52 · 0.65 xG

MIN went 3-for-8 from medium danger on 0.83 expected goals — 2.2 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
MIN
5 G · 3.02 xG · +2.0
DET
4 G · 3.31 xG · +0.7
0123456

MIN finished +2.0 against expected, DET +0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
MIN
SNAP2/14
WRIST1/16
TIP IN0/3
SLAP1/3
BACKHAND0/1
DEFLECTED1/1
OTHER0/8
DET
SNAP2/16
WRIST0/14
TIP IN1/6
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND1/3
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/28
MIN
DET
Off the rush
5 G on 26
2.07 xG
3 G on 28
2.50 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 1
0.27 xG
0 G on 3
0.19 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: MIN went 2-for-14, DET 2-for-16. MIN scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
F. Gustavsson
MIN · 20/24 · .833
-0.7
saved above expected
D
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/51.1+1.1
Medium2/141.5-0.5
Low2/520.7-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Talbot
DET · 15/20 · .750
-2.0
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/61.5+1.5
Medium3/80.8-2.2
Low2/320.7-1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

81 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
MIN
38 shots
5
Final
81 shots
DET
43 shots
4
MIN attackDET attack
MIN DET Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
K. Kaprizov
#97 · L · MIN
3 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 19:53 on ice
P. Kane
#88 · R · DET
1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 19:09 on ice
M. Boldy
#12 · L · MIN
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:03 on ice
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Apr 5
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:53 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.5 tie with the Wild at 50% win probability—about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Minnesota owns the underlying play. The Wild carry a 52.0% 5v5 expected goals share against Detroit's 49.0%, a modest but genuine advantage that reflects their ability to generate the better chances. Their Corsi sits nearly even with Detroit's at 48.0% to 49.0%, meaning they're generating that edge through efficiency, not volume.

Where this gets interesting: Minnesota is outperforming its true talent by a hair. Their PDO of 1.007 suggests they've converted at a slightly better rate than their underlying metrics would predict, while Detroit's 0.985 points the other direction—the Red Wings have been a touch unlucky. This kind of variance can evaporate quickly, which is why the model treats the game as a coinflip despite Minnesota's structural advantage.

Goaltending will matter. J. Gibson and J. Wallstedt are both playing on back-to-backs, creating uncertainty about whether Detroit and Minnesota will deploy their usual starters. A fatigued or replaced goalie can swing a close game.

Matt Boldy anchors Minnesota's attack with 22 goals on a 13.7% shooting rate while averaging 0.89 expected goals per 60 minutes, backed by five high-danger goals. Robby Fabbri, carrying 0.88 xG/60 with 2 goals, is likely unavailable. Detroit counters with Alex DeBrincat, whose 0.88 xG/60 and 28 assists point to elite playmaking despite just 17 goals on a 9.0% shooting rate. Marco Kasper rounds out Detroit's threat level at 0.81 xG/60 with 7 goals.

Minnesota's defensive weak spot is Matt Kiersted. Detroit's equivalent vulnerability sits with Axel Sandin-Pellikka. Both teams grade poorly on high-danger and rebound goal rates—a sign of either strong defensive structure or goaltending luck, depending on your read.

This game hinges on whether Minnesota's underlying edge in chance quality translates to actual scoring, or whether Detroit's regression is temporary luck rather than a real problem. The model sees no edge. You shouldn't either.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 50%
50%
MIN
Model favorite
50%
50%
MIN50DET

MIN by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 2.5–2.5 DET; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →DET
52.0%49.0%
48.0%49.0%
2.552.38
2.402.50
2.041.73
1.932.07
1.0070.985

MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.007 vs 0.985) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
5-5-0
-2 GD · 1d rest
DET
4-5-1
-3 GD · 1d rest
1.007
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.985
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
Things to watch
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
  • J. Gibson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • J. Wallstedt is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
MIN
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
back-to-back.971 last start
Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

DET
Expected in goal
J. Gibson
back-to-back.842 last start
Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
MIN
Matt Boldy22G 18A
0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
Robby Fabbri2G 3A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
DET
Alex DeBrincat17G 28A
0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh
Marco Kasper7G 8A
0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page