Motion-blurred skater in a New Jersey Devils sweater

Breakdown · NJD at MTL

Devils shut out the Canadiens, 3-0

FinalSun, Apr 5

NJDNew Jersey Devils3 MTLMontreal Canadiens0

The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NJD 3 · MTL 0

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:34 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal generated 3.07 expected goals—enough for a competitive game. The Canadiens scored zero, revealing the gap between underlying metrics and execution. That's the story of this 3-0 defeat.

New Jersey controlled the matchup decisively, producing 4.30 xG at a superior shot quality of 0.091 xG per attempt versus Montreal's 0.053. The Devils dominated high-danger chances 8–4 and created 5 rebound opportunities, converting 1 into a goal.

Connor Brown's snap shot from the top of the circles (P3, 16:35) marked the turning point, but the goaltending margins told the full story. J. Markstrom (NJD) stopped all 18 shots on a 1.000 save percentage, saving 3.07 goals above expected. J. Fowler (MTL) made 17 of 19 for a 0.895 save percentage, saving 2.30 goals above expected—solid work that couldn't overcome the shot quality gap.

The underlying verdict: Montreal underperformed its xG by 3.07 goals; New Jersey underperformed by 1.30. One team controlled shot quality and chance creation. The other generated decent underlying metrics but failed to execute when opportunities arrived.

J. Hughes (NJD) orchestrated the offense with 2A in 21:41. T. Meier (NJD) added 1G in 18:22, and Brown finished with 1G in 20:57, all benefiting from their team's structural dominance.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 5

NJD

MTL

Devils shut out the Canadiens, 3-0

Chances 4.3 – 3.1Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NJD

4.30

MTL

3.07

58% of the chances42%

The board read NJD 3, MTL 0. The chances read NJD 4.3, MTL 3.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NJD

−1.3

goals above expected

NJD4.30 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

MTL3.07 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Canadiens left 3.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 10:47NJDT. Meier1–0
P2 18:12NJDC. Glass2–0
P3 16:35NJDC. BrownEN3–0

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NJD

35 shots

Final

73 shots

MTL

38 shots

NJD MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 0 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NJDMTL

2 / 8

2.71 xG

High danger

0 / 4

0.83 xG

1 / 10

1.04 xG

Medium

0 / 16

1.76 xG

0 / 29

0.55 xG

Low

0 / 38

0.47 xG

The Canadiens went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

J. Markstrom

+3.1

NJD · 18/18

J. Fowler

+2.3

MTL · 17/19

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Devils shut out the Canadiens, 3-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–4

10:47NJDT. Meier(J. Hughes)1–0

2ndshots 6–4

18:12NJDC. Glass2–0

3rdshots 5–10

16:35NJDC. Brownempty net(J. Hughes, J. Bratt)3–0

score reads NJD–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.30

NJD chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.3

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.064

NJD puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

44.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.30Expected goals3.07

NJD 58% of the chance quality

20Shots on goal18

8High-danger chances4

47All attempts (Corsi)58

Adjusted for score: NJD 40% · MTL 60%

Faceoffs · MTL won55%off58%neu25%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NJD2 / 8 · 2.71 xG

MTL0 / 4 · 0.83 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NJD1 / 10 · 1.04 xG

MTL0 / 16 · 1.76 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NJD0 / 29 · 0.55 xG

MTL0 / 38 · 0.47 xG

MTL went 0-for-16 from medium danger on 1.76 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NJD

3 G · 4.30 xG · -1.3

MTL

0 G · 3.07 xG · -3.1

012345

NJD finished -1.3 against expected, MTL -3.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NJD

SNAP3/20

SLAP0/2

TIP IN0/5

BACKHAND0/5

WRIST0/3

BAT0/0

OTHER0/12

MTL

SNAP0/20

SLAP0/10

TIP IN0/6

BACKHAND0/0

WRIST0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/20

NJD

MTL

Off the rush

1 G on 25

1.98 xG

0 G on 24

2.01 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 5

1.38 xG

0 G on 1

0.19 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NJD went 3-for-20, MTL 0-for-20.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Markstrom

NJD · 18/18 · 1.000

+3.1

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.8+0.8

Medium0/161.8+1.8

Low0/380.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Fowler

MTL · 17/19 · .895

+2.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/82.7+0.7

Medium1/101.0+0.0

Low0/290.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

73 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NJD

35 shots

Final

73 shots

MTL

38 shots

NJD MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Hughes

#86 · C · NJD

0 G · 2 A · 6 SOG · 21:41 on ice · +2

C. Brown

#16 · R · NJD

1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 20:57 on ice · +1

T. Meier

#28 · R · NJD

1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 18:22 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Apr 5

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:32 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5-2.6 goal game with Montreal at 50% win probability—basically a pick'em. New Jersey and Montreal are evenly matched, which is rare in games this late in the season.

The Canadiens have momentum (9-1-0 in their last ten), but underlying numbers tell a more complicated story. At 5v5, New Jersey leads in expected goals (50.0% xG% to 48.0%) and shot attempts (51.0% Corsi% to 49.0%), suggesting the Devils have been controlling play. Montreal's edge comes from puck luck: their PDO sits at 1.018—running hot—while New Jersey's 0.971 indicates cold-running results despite dominant play. Expect some regression both ways.

Goaltending adds another layer of uncertainty. Both J. Dobes and J. Allen are on back-to-backs, raising the possibility of backup appearances or tired starters. That volatility could swing either way.

Players to Watch

NJD

Timo Meier — 1.08 xG/60, 13G 15A, 6.7% shooting
Jack Hughes — 0.88 xG/60, 18G 17A, 11.5% shooting

MTL

Cole Caufield — 0.97 xG/60, 33G 16A, 20.0% shooting
Oliver Kapanen — 0.83 xG/60, 19G 12A, 17.8% shooting

New Jersey's offense runs through Meier's elite volume and Hughes's efficient conversion. Hughes's 11.5% shooting rate is unsustainable; regression will cost him goals. Meier's 6.7% implies room for a hot streak. Montreal counters with Caufield, whose 33 goals at 20.0% shooting represent a statistical anomaly awaiting correction. Kapanen's 17.8% conversion rate is similarly extended.

The strategic imperative is clear: New Jersey must neutralize Caufield, while Montreal focuses on Meier. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities where tired play matters most. Johnathan Kovacevic represents New Jersey's liability; Mike Matheson carries similar risk for Montreal. The team that controls possession on tired legs and limits rebound chances will likely steal this one.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MTL 51%

50%

MTL

Model favorite

50%

NJD50MTL

MTL by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 2.5–2.6 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD← edge

edge →MTL

50.0%48.0%

51.0%49.0%

2.452.41

2.502.62

1.662.24

2.231.96

0.9711.018

NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 1.018) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NJD

6-3-1

+6 GD · 1d rest

MTL

9-1-0

+17 GD · 1d rest

0.971

NJD PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

J. Dobes is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
J. Allen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Canadiens are the hotter team by points pace (9-1-0 in their last 10).
The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NJD

Expected in goal

J. Allen

back-to-back.897 last start

Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL

Expected in goal

J. Dobes

back-to-back.921 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD

Timo Meier13G 15A

1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh

Jack Hughes18G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Oliver Kapanen19G 12A

0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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