The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Ottawa's 6-3 win over Carolina reflects genuine dominance, not just the scoreboard. The Senators controlled 69% of 5v5 expected goals (6.91–3.09), a gap that typically produces blowouts. That they underperformed their xG by 0.91 goals and still won decisively only underscores how thorough their advantage was.
The Senators' superiority showed in every dimension. They generated high-danger chances at a 12–3 ratio and converted these with surgical efficiency: 0.121 expected goals per shot versus Carolina's 0.048. This wasn't quantity over quality—it was dominance on both fronts. Ottawa recycled the puck relentlessly, creating nine rebound opportunities and converting two, while the Hurricanes generated just four such chances with only one conversion.
On the rush, Ottawa's conversion was ruthless. The Senators scored twice on 23 rush attempts, a lethal return that exploited Carolina's transition coverage. Their power play, too, was a mismatch: two goals on seven chances with 1.30 expected goals, a lopsided edge that decided the game's trajectory.
Carolina's offense, though underpowered, showed flashes of danger. They generated higher-quality looks than their shot total suggests, which makes F. Andersen's 1.91 goals saved above expected all the more remarkable—a near-masterclass that merely delayed the inevitable.
L. Ullmark's 0.893 save percentage was pedestrian compared to what the Senators' dominance demanded, yet serviceable; Ottawa's offense was so potent that even pedestrian goaltending sufficed.
The Senators didn't just win this game in the underlying numbers. They won it with a margin so vast that the final tally understated their control. Carolina never had a realistic path to victory once Ottawa's shot quality established itself.