The Sabres earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Sabres beat the Lightning 4–2 with underlying numbers that told an even starker story: the Sabres controlled 60 percent of expected goals (4.25–2.88) while generating far superior chance quality per shot (0.080 xG/shot versus 0.055). The margin of 2 goals understates their dominance.
The Sabres generated 6 high-danger chances to the Lightning's 3, a split reflected precisely in their shot-attempt advantage (55 percent, 30–25). Where the Sabres pulled away was efficiency: they converted 3 of 28 rush chances while holding the Lightning to 2 of 24, turning volume into ruthless execution.
Vasilevskiy made 1.3 saves above expectation, the game's defining goaltending performance—it alone kept the score respectable for a Lightning team that underperformed its underlying metrics by 0.88 goals. Luukkonen matched it with 0.88 saves above expected, denying the Lightning any real comeback route. Both goalies played above their xG expectations, but Vasilevskiy's edge mattered more in a game the Lightning needed to win.
Jack Quinn's wrist shot from the wing late in the third (18:06, P3) provided an insurance marker the Sabres' control had already warranted. The sequence was incidental; the outcome was inevitable.