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← Tue, Apr 7 · the slate
Breakdown · FLA at MTL

Canadiens edge the Panthers in a shootout

Final / OTTue, Apr 7
FLAFlorida Panthers3MTLMontreal Canadiens4
The verdict · coin flip

The Canadiens won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

FLA 3 · MTL 4
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:42 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal won despite nearly equal expected goals — a game where both teams squandered quality chances and goaltending excellence proved decisive.

The underlying play broke down evenly. Expected goals split 4.96–4.99 in Florida's favor, but the edge was negligible. Shot attempts went to Montreal (49%), but high-danger chances favored the Panthers, 10–9. Yet Montreal skated away with the shootout win.

The culprit: variance. Both goalies outperformed their expected save rates by nearly 2 goals. D. Tarasov stopped 29 of 32 shots (0.906 SV%, +1.96 vs expected). J. Dobes stopped 30 of 33 (0.909 SV%, +1.99 vs expected). In a game where expected goals promised nearly even scoring, exceptional netminding decided it.

The story in the margins: Montreal converted rush chances at a higher clip (3 goals on 30 rush attempts vs. Florida's 2 on 29). J. Slafkovský powered the Canadiens offense, posting 2 assists in 19:36. Florida got balanced scoring from S. Jones and G. Forsling, both registering assists in heavy ice time.

Neither team cashed in their rebound chances. Montreal created 4 rebound opportunities and converted none. Florida created 6 and converted one. This was a game of missed opportunities and two goalies who said no.

Alexandre Texier's shootout snap shot from the slot ended it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Apr 7
FLA
3
MTL
4

Canadiens edge the Panthers in a shootout

Chances 5.0 – 5.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Canadiens took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
FLA
4.99
MTL
4.96
50% of the chances50%

The board read FLA 3, MTL 4. The chances read FLA 5.0, MTL 5.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
−1.0
goals above expected
MTL4.96 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
FLA4.99 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Panthers left 2.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 09:23FLAC. Verhaeghe1–0
  2. P2 00:54MTLI. DemidovPP1–1
  3. P2 13:43FLAC. Reinhardt2–1
  4. P3 06:22MTLP. DanaultPP2–2
  5. P3 07:49FLAE. Luostarinen3–2
  6. P3 19:39MTLN. SuzukiPP3–3
  7. SO 00:00MTLC. CaufieldPP3–3
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
FLA
48 shots
3
Final
96 shots
MTL
48 shots
5
FLA attackMTL attack
FLA MTL Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

48
shots · 3 in
48
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
FLAMTL
1 / 10
2.37 xG
High danger
2 / 9
2.58 xG
1 / 19
2.10 xG
Medium
1 / 19
1.94 xG
1 / 28
0.52 xG
Low
0 / 40
0.45 xG

The Canadiens buried 2 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Dobes
+2.0
MTL · 30/33
A
D. Tarasov
+2.0
FLA · 29/32
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Canadiens edge the Panthers in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–7
  1. 09:23FLAC. Verhaeghe(D. Sebrango)1–0
2ndshots 10–7
  1. 00:54MTLI. Demidovpower play(C. Caufield, J. Slafkovský)1–1
  2. 13:43FLAC. Reinhardt(L. Kunin, S. Jones)2–1
3rdshots 7–15
  1. 06:22MTLP. Danaultpower play(N. Dobson, A. Engstrom)2–2
  2. 07:49FLAE. Luostarinen(G. Forsling, J. Boqvist)3–2
  3. 19:39MTLN. Suzukipower play(L. Hutson, J. Slafkovský)3–3
OTshots 5–3no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00MTLC. Caufieldpower play3–3
    2. 00:00MTLA. Texierpower play3–3

    score reads FLA–MTL

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.96
    MTL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.0
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    0.992
    MTL puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    54.4%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.99Expected goals4.96
    FLA 50% of the chance quality
    33Shots on goal32
    10High-danger chances9
    57All attempts (Corsi)68
    Adjusted for score: FLA 44% · MTL 56%
    Faceoffs · MTL won44%off74%neu54%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    FLA1 / 10 · 2.37 xG
    MTL2 / 9 · 2.58 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    FLA1 / 19 · 2.10 xG
    MTL1 / 19 · 1.94 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    FLA1 / 28 · 0.52 xG
    MTL0 / 40 · 0.45 xG

    FLA went 1-for-10 from high danger on 2.37 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    FLA
    3 G · 4.99 xG · -2.0
    MTL
    4 G · 4.96 xG · -1.0
    0123456

    FLA finished -2.0 against expected, MTL -1.0.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    FLA
    SNAP1/29
    SLAP0/3
    BACKHAND0/4
    TIP IN1/5
    WRIST1/4
    BAT0/0
    DEFLECTED0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/11
    MTL
    SNAP2/29
    SLAP1/10
    BACKHAND0/3
    TIP IN0/1
    WRIST0/0
    BAT0/2
    DEFLECTED0/0
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/22
    FLA
    MTL
    Off the rush
    2 G on 29
    3.53 xG
    3 G on 30
    3.74 xG
    Off rebounds
    1 G on 6
    0.72 xG
    0 G on 4
    0.86 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: FLA went 1-for-29, MTL 2-for-29. MTL scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    D. Tarasov
    FLA · 29/32 · .906
    +2.0
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/92.6+0.6
    Medium1/191.9+0.9
    Low0/400.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Dobes
    MTL · 30/33 · .909
    +2.0
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/102.4+1.4
    Medium1/192.1+1.1
    Low1/280.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    96 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    FLA
    48 shots
    3
    Final
    96 shots
    MTL
    48 shots
    5
    FLA attackMTL attack
    FLA MTL Goal

    Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

    Each club shoots toward its own end — FLA left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Slafkovský
    #20 · L · MTL
    0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 19:36 on ice
    S. Jones
    #3 · D · FLA
    0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 29:27 on ice
    G. Forsling
    #42 · D · FLA
    0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 26:24 on ice
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Apr 7
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:40 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    Montreal projects as a slight favorite on a 51% win probability model, with 2.5–2.6 expected goals favoring the Canadiens. That's chalk at its slimmest.

    Form goes to Montreal. The Canadiens are 8-2-0 over their last 10 games; Florida's -8 goal differential in the same span tells the opposite story.

    Advanced metrics complicate the picture. Florida controls the game at 52.0% Corsi and 49.0% expected goals; Montreal sits at 49.0% Corsi and 48.0% xG%. Territory tilts to Florida. But Montreal's 1.018 PDO means regression is coming; Florida's 0.989 means improvement awaits.

    Cole Caufield anchors Montreal at 0.97 xG/60 with 33 goals and a 20.0% shooting rate. Oliver Kapanen contributes 19 goals at 0.83 xG/60. Sam Bennett matches Caufield at 0.97 xG/60 with 18 goals but on 13.1% shooting—dangerously low. Brad Marchand adds 0.93 xG/60 and 19.5% shooting but hasn't played in 32 days and is likely sidelined.

    Montreal's defensive liability is Mike Matheson. Marchand's absence tilts Florida's lineup. The scoring matchup is even; the health matchup favors Montreal.

    Form and PDO regression tailwind line up for Montreal; territorial control lines up for Florida. This is luck against structure. Genuine coin flip.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    MTL 51%
    51%
    MTL
    Model favorite
    49%
    51%
    FLA50MTL

    MTL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score FLA 2.5–2.6 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    FLA← edge
    edge →MTL
    49.0%48.0%
    52.0%49.0%
    2.482.41
    2.562.62
    1.982.24
    2.211.96
    0.9891.018

    FLA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.989 vs 1.018) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    FLA
    4-6-0
    -8 GD · 2d rest
    MTL
    8-2-0
    +13 GD · 2d rest
    0.989
    FLA PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.018
    MTL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • The Canadiens are the hotter team by points pace (8-2-0 in their last 10).
    • The Panthers are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    FLA
    Expected in goal
    D. Tarasov
    2 days rest.783 last start
    Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    MTL
    Expected in goal
    J. Fowler
    2 days rest.895 last start
    Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    FLA
    Sam Bennett18G 19A
    0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh
    Brad Marchand17G 9A
    0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh
    MTL
    Cole Caufield33G 16A
    0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
    Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
    0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page