The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Senators' 6-2 victory was backed up entirely by the underlying numbers. They controlled 64% of 5v5 expected goals (5.48–3.05) while generating far more high-danger chances (11–6), a performance that made the scoreline inevitable rather than lucky.
Ottawa dominated shot quality throughout. They held 52% of shot attempts (32–30) but where they truly separated themselves was in the scoring chances generated—0.087 xG per shot versus Tampa's 0.053. The Lightning underperformed their xG by 1.05 goals, a reflection of both poor execution and solid Ottawa defense. L. Ullmark stopped 28 of 30 attempts at 0.933 SV%, the primary architect of that advantage.
The game's turning point came on Shane Pinto's high-slot wrist shot at 16:41 of the third period.
Ottawa's special teams gave them the cleanest edge. They converted 2 power-play goals on 10 shots—well above their 0.94 xG on the man advantage, a demonstration of high-leverage execution. Ottawa also thrived in transition, scoring 4 goals on 32 rush attempts, while Tampa managed just 2 on 20, a gap that turned dominance into a rout.