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Breakdown · CBJ at DET

Blue Jackets edge the Red Wings in a shootout

Final / OTTue, Apr 7
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets4DETDetroit Red Wings3
The verdict · earned

The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 4 · DET 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:42 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus won 4-3 in a shootout despite conceding far more high-danger chances — 7 to 4 — and trailing in expected goals 4.18 to 3.45. The Red Wings controlled the board and the underlying scoring chances yet couldn't finish. Columbus's power play provided the margin: 2 goals on 13 shots (0.49 xG), while Detroit scored none. Rush goals split evenly — each team scored 3. J. Greaves posted a 0.919 save percentage on 34 stops. Z. Werenski's wrist shot from the slot in the shootout ended it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Apr 7
CBJ
4
DET
3

Blue Jackets edge the Red Wings in a shootout

Chances 4.2 – 3.5Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
4.18
DET
3.45
55% of the chances45%

The board read CBJ 4, DET 3. The chances read CBJ 4.2, DET 3.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
−0.2
goals above expected
CBJ4.18 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
DET3.45 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:06CBJD. Heinen1–0
  2. P1 10:27DETD. LarkinPP1–1
  3. P2 06:27DETJ. Faulk1–2
  4. P2 10:59CBJZ. WerenskiPP2–2
  5. P3 15:14DETJ. Faulk2–3
  6. P3 19:43CBJA. FantilliPP3–3
  7. SO 00:00CBJK. JohnsonPP3–3
+4 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
58 shots
6
Final
116 shots
DET
58 shots
5
CBJ attackDET attack
CBJ DET Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

58
shots · 6 in
58
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJDET
1 / 7
1.67 xG
High danger
1 / 4
1.09 xG
1 / 16
1.78 xG
Medium
1 / 14
1.29 xG
1 / 57
0.72 xG
Low
1 / 60
1.07 xG

High-danger looks: CBJ 1 of 7, DET 1 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Gibson
+1.2
DET · 32/35
B
J. Greaves
+0.5
CBJ · 34/37
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets edge the Red Wings in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–9
  1. 02:06CBJD. Heinen(M. Marchment)1–0
  2. 10:27DETD. Larkinpower play(P. Kane, M. Seider)1–1
2ndshots 15–12
  1. 06:27DETJ. Faulk(D. Larkin, B. Chiarot)1–2
  2. 10:59CBJZ. Werenskipower play(D. Mateychuk, J. Greaves)2–2
3rdshots 8–9
  1. 15:14DETJ. Faulk(A. DeBrincat, A. Copp)2–3
  2. 19:43CBJA. Fantillipower play(Z. Werenski, K. Marchenko)3–3
OTshots 3–7no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00CBJK. Johnsonpower play3–3
    2. 00:00DETP. Kanepower play3–3
    3. 00:00DETA. DeBrincatpower play3–3
    4. 00:00CBJC. Coylepower play3–3
    5. 00:00CBJZ. Werenskipower play3–3

    score reads CBJ–DET

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.18
    CBJ chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.2
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    0.999
    CBJ puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    50.6%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.18Expected goals3.45
    CBJ 55% of the chance quality
    35Shots on goal37
    7High-danger chances4
    80All attempts (Corsi)78
    Adjusted for score: CBJ 51% · DET 49%
    Faceoffs · DET won47%off40%neu50%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    CBJ1 / 7 · 1.67 xG
    DET1 / 4 · 1.09 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    CBJ1 / 16 · 1.78 xG
    DET1 / 14 · 1.29 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    CBJ1 / 57 · 0.72 xG
    DET1 / 60 · 1.07 xG

    CBJ went 1-for-16 from medium danger on 1.78 expected goals — 0.8 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    CBJ
    4 G · 4.18 xG · -0.2
    DET
    3 G · 3.45 xG · -0.5
    012345

    CBJ finished -0.2 against expected, DET -0.5.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    CBJ
    WRIST1/29
    SNAP1/10
    SLAP1/4
    TIP IN0/9
    BACKHAND0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/27
    DET
    WRIST2/20
    SNAP0/12
    SLAP1/12
    TIP IN0/3
    BACKHAND0/4
    WRAP AROUND0/2
    OTHER0/25
    CBJ
    DET
    Off the rush
    3 G on 36
    2.86 xG
    3 G on 41
    2.99 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 5
    1.01 xG
    0 G on 1
    0.02 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 1-for-29, DET 2-for-20. CBJ scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Greaves
    CBJ · 34/37 · .919
    +0.5
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/41.1+0.1
    Medium1/141.3+0.3
    Low1/601.1+0.1

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Gibson
    DET · 32/35 · .914
    +1.2
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/71.7+0.7
    Medium1/161.8+0.8
    Low1/570.7-0.3

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    116 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    CBJ
    58 shots
    6
    Final
    116 shots
    DET
    58 shots
    5
    CBJ attackDET attack
    CBJ DET Goal

    Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

    Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    Z. Werenski
    #8 · D · CBJ
    1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 33:26 on ice
    J. Faulk
    #72 · D · DET
    2 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 23:40 on ice · +2
    D. Larkin
    #71 · C · DET
    1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 23:20 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Tue, Apr 7
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:40 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a CBJ 2.6 - 2.5 DET matchup with the Blue Jackets at 51% win probability—as close to a pick'em as the math gets.

    Columbus owns the underlying play, holding 52.0% expected goals and 51.0% Corsi against Detroit's 49.0% in both categories. Yet the Blue Jackets are -5 in goal differential over their last 10, exposing the gap between what their shot quality says they should be getting and what's actually going in the net. Detroit's 0.985 PDO hints at the inverse: the Red Wings are getting outplayed but haven't collapsed because their luck has run slightly behind their actual performance.

    Boone Jenner is the engine for Columbus, generating 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes with 11 goals and 21 assists at a 9.6% shooting rate. That conversion is already high; further gains require things outside shot quality to break right. Mathieu Olivier at 0.89 xG per 60 is shooting at 13.3%, which is exceptional, though he may be unavailable after nine days away from the lineup—his 12 goals and 9 assists mask an unsustainable pace. Alex DeBrincat answers for Detroit, generating 0.88 xG per 60 with 17 goals and 28 assists at a sustainable 9.0% shooting rate. Marco Kasper produces 0.81 xG per 60 with 7 goals and 8 assists at 6.1% shooting, suggesting the Red Wings have genuine upside if his conversion normalizes.

    The finish line is where this game unravels. Columbus shows 0% on both high-danger and rebound opportunities—meaning they're generating volume in the hard areas but not converting it. Detroit mirrors that complete shutdown on high-danger chances. Conor Garland is Columbus's defensive liability; Axel Sandin-Pellikka is Detroit's. Each team has exposed depth on the back end that the other could exploit.

    This game lives at the margin. Columbus has the play; Detroit has the star power and the unpredictability of what happens when a team shoots below its process. The 51% projection reflects that balance exactly.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    CBJ 51%
    51%
    CBJ
    Model favorite
    51%
    49%
    CBJ50DET

    CBJ by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 2.6–2.5 DET; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ← edge
    edge →DET
    52.0%49.0%
    51.0%49.0%
    2.632.38
    2.432.50
    2.121.73
    1.982.07
    1.0030.985

    CBJ holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 0.985) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    CBJ
    3-6-1
    -5 GD · 3d rest
    DET
    4-6-0
    -3 GD · 2d rest
    1.003
    CBJ PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.985
    DET PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    Things to watch
    • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.0%.
    • The Blue Jackets are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    CBJ
    Expected in goal
    J. Greaves
    3 days rest.923 last start
    Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    DET
    Expected in goal
    C. Talbot
    2 days rest.750 last start
    Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ
    Boone Jenner11G 21A
    0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
    Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
    DET
    Alex DeBrincat17G 28A
    0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh
    Marco Kasper7G 8A
    0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page