The Stars stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.42–2.12 and won anyway.
Dallas won 5–4 despite losing expected goals 2.12–3.42. Minnesota controlled 62% of expected goal share at 5v5 — the Wild were the better team and lost anyway.
The metrics confirm it. Minnesota held a 31–20 edge in shot attempts while Dallas generated 2 high-danger chances to Minnesota's 4. That's inverted: the team that got outshot had more dangerous looks. Goaltending was the delta. F. Gustavsson surrendered 2.88 goals above expectation on 15 saves. J. Oettinger gave up only 0.58 above expected on 27 stops — the two performances were not even close.
Dallas exploited what mattered most: the rush. They scored 2 goals on 18 rush chances; Minnesota scored 2 on 30. Dallas finished with precision; Minnesota did not.
Jason Robertson's wrist shot from a sharp angle (10:35, P3) was the game's hinge. It tilted Dallas into a lead they would not surrender.
The special-teams story belonged to Minnesota. They converted 3 power-play goals on 10 shots (0.83 xG), a dominant display that should have been enough. It wasn't. They paid for mediocre 5v5 finishing while Dallas thrived on their chances.
M. Zuccarello led with 3 assists in 18:12. Q. Hughes added 1 goal and 1 assist in 31:51. E. Lindell posted 2 assists in 25:03.
Three Stars
- #36 M. Zuccarello (MIN) — 3A in 18:12
- #43 Q. Hughes (MIN) — 1G, 1A in 31:51
- #23 E. Lindell (DAL) — 2A in 25:03
