The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
D. Wolf's 0.950 save percentage turned a 6.72–3.02 expected-goals romp into a 3-1 scoreline. The Avalanche dominated possession (69% xG) but only half-converted their chances; Calgary's goaltender stole the show.
Colorado controlled this game from the start. They generated 6.72 expected goals at 5-on-5 against just 3.02, holding 59% of shot attempts (41–29) and winning the high-danger battle 11–5. Every underlying metric pointed the same direction: this was not close.
Yet D. Wolf (CGY) stopped 4.72 goals above expected, posting a 0.950 save percentage. He faced a barrage of quality chances and answered nearly every one. Meanwhile, M. Blackwood (COL) stopped 2.02 above expected with a 0.966 SV%, but his team wasted the net-front real estate they earned.
The Avalanche were especially lethal on the rush, converting 3 goals on 30 attempts. That efficiency compensated for their xG underperformance (they scored 3 on 6.72 expected). Colorado also crashed effectively—creating 6 rebound chances—but converted zero of them, a missed opportunity given how thoroughly they controlled the ice.
For Calgary, the story is simpler: they generated fewer and lower-quality chances (0.050 xG per shot vs Colorado's 0.086), and the few dangerous opportunities they created (5 high-danger chances) converted zero times. That won't hold up in future games. The Flames outworked nobody; they just faced a superior offensive team and leaned on Wolf to keep it respectable.
